The SDP: 2019 Thirsk and Malton

Time for another amateur analysis of one of the seats being contested by the SDP in the forthcoming General Election. Here is a look at a Conservative safe seat that is being contested by a brave SDP candidate by the name of Michael Taylor.

Thirsk & Malton is a Tory stronghold in North Yorkshire. In the last election they took 60% of the vote. In the EU referendum the constituency voted 56% to leave the EU. This constituency will not change hands in December 2019.

Interestingly Mike Taylor (SDP) is the only candidate that has supported Brexit from the outset. The sitting MP (Kevin Hollinrake) was (in 2016) a supporter of Remain. Today it looks like Kevin Hollinrake is really a somewhat reluctant Brexiteer.

I would suggest Kevin Hollinrake supports Johnson out of party loyalty rather than due to any “road to Damascus” conversion. In fact he voiced opposition to Johnsons “do or die” ideal of leaving the EU on October 31st.

I would suggest that the sitting MP is in all intents and purposes still a Remainer at heart. I would suspect that although he may tow the party line after the election, he will potentially be a thorn in the side of those negotiating the future Trading relationship with the EU.

There is no UKIP or Brexit Party Candidate. The rump 2017 UKIP vote (1500 voters) has to be looking for a home. They did not go to the Conservatives or Labour in 2017 so where else is there for them to go in 2019 other than to a true Brexit supporting party like the SDP?

In 2015 the UKIP vote was almost as big as Labour's. In 2015 UKIP took just under 8000 votes. It looks like between 2015 and 2017 the UKIP vote shed 2000 voters to Labour and 4500 to the Conservatives.

So there should be a considerable number of discontented Leave voting Labour supporters who have given up on Corbyn’s debacle of a Brexit policy. They may well be looking for a new home, especially for one with strong traditional Labour roots.

It could well be that these leave voters just won’t vote Tory ever. Especially for one who was a Remainer. So this may well be fertile territory.

As for the disgruntled leavers in that mountain of Conservative voters, there is the opportunity to tweak the sitting MPs tail by voting for the SDP. There is no chance of letting in Labour (or anyone else) by the back door. A protest vote to support a real Brexiteer may well just make their day.

So lets say the whole of the ex-UKIP vote and perhaps another 2000 voters apiece from both the Conservative and Labour partys are volatile. They will consider voting for a true Brexiteer in the election. That is 12,000 volatile voters.

Resources are of course limited. But with a bit of luck and fortuitous canvassing then maybe 1000 can be pulled into the SDP camp which would be brilliant. But a vote in the few hundreds would still be a publicity victory.

So here are my crap ideas on what to promote to entice voters to vote SDP.

They are probably rubbish but maybe one or two will hit the spot.
  1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. Whatever you vote and whether you like it or not, the MP is secure.
  2. Your vote still matters. It will not change the MP but it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory. It will make the Tory MP just that little bit less complacent.
  3. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
  4. Attack Labour on their hideous record on bigotry and antisemitism. The MP cannot be changed by voting Labour. So wouldn’t it be worthwhile registering your disapproval of this antisemitic ugliness by voting SDP and depriving Labour of your vote?
  5. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit and work against it.
  6. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Remainer Tory? Or pro democracy?
  7. We (quite rightly) have laws to protect 16 year olds from sexual and financial predators. Do you think giving votes to 16 year olds and opening them up to political predators is a good idea? The Labour party supports votes for 16 year olds! Will you vote for that? Or vote SDP so showing your disapproval of hard-line "woke" Labour policy
  8. You do know the sitting Tory MP supported remain in 2016 don’t you? He won’t be replaced in this election but you can keep him inline by voting for the only candidate that supported Brexit from the outset. The SDP candidate.
  9. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored.

No comments: