The SDP: 2019 Havant

The SDP are standing a candidate in the Havant Constituency in Hampshire in the 2019 General Election.

Here's my take on what they might achieve, where the potential SDP voters will come from and how many of them there are. Of course, this is just my opinion but I think it adds up.

In my humble opinion this is one of the best prospects for a decent vote share for the SDP in all of the 20 seats being contested by them.

Havant is an impregnable Tory seat and always has been. In the last election the sitting Tory MP (Alan Mak) garnered almost 60% of the vote. His majority alone was bigger than the vote share achieved by the Labour Party. This seat will not change hands.

There is no UKIP and (more importantly) no Brexit party candidate. The SDP candidate is in fact the sole Brexiteer. Alan Mak campaigned in 2016 to remain. This should be a strong lever to prize off disgruntled Brexiteers from the mountainous Tory vote.

Alan Maks majority amounts to a full 34% of the votes cast. So all voters should realise that Alan Mak will not be replaced whatever they vote. Voters can safely express their displeasure at his remainerism.

Voters can diminish Mak's vote share by voting for the only candidate that supported Brexit from the start - the SDP candidate. They can do this without fear of letting in the Labour Party by the back door.

The SDP candidate in this election is Alan Black.

Here is the candidate list and 2017 general Election result

In 2015 UKIP gained a considerable vote share with 9000 votes. When they collapsed in 2017 about about 4000 of their votes went to the Tories and about 3000 went to Labour. There remained a rump of about 2000 UKIP votes in 2017.

Interestingly there was an independent candidate in 2017. She gained nearly a 1000 votes. It appears her campaign centred around over-development in the area which could be another good lever to gain votes. (more research required)

Explaining to voters that this seat will not change hands is crucial.

There is a rump of 2000 UKIP votes with nowhere to go other than the SDP. 

There is the 3000 that migrated to the Labour party that must also be desperately looking for somewhere to go. 

The 4000 UKIP votes that went to the Tories will also feel queasy if they are enlightened to the fact that Alan Mak actually campaigned for Remain in 2016 even though he had previously described himself as a Euro-Sceptic. 

For these Tory voters, finding a real Brexiteer (SDP) candidate while being shown that Alan Maks majority is so huge that there is no possibility of inadvertantly letting in a Labour or LibDem will be an eye-opener.

Besides the ex-ukippers, the Labour vote is up for squeezing anyway. They have in essence abandoned their leave supporting Labour voters. Add to that the nastiness about anti-semitism and I reckon theres about 2-3000 Labour votes other than the 3000 ex-ukippers up for grabs.

Add in the 1000 votes that went to the lady independent and there is a lot to play for here.

I reckon that in total there is possibly up to 12000 volatile votes that are maybe looking for a new home. Most of those will be abandoned or mislead leave voters who would like to punish either the Tories or Labour.

The Tory voters will all will fear a Labour government. Reassuring them that voting SDP cannot let in the Labour candidate by the back door is paramount.

The reverse is true for the Labour voters.

Telling them the truth that whatever they vote they will not change the MP will mean they can register their disapproval with Corbyn and his (less than) merry men.

So what would be the best way of promoting the SDP in this seat? Here’s my ten arguments.

They may be rubbish but they may just get you to generate better ones!

1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. So by voting for party other than the Tories you will not be damaging Brexit. Whatever you vote and whether you like it or not, the MP is secure.
2. Your vote matters. It will not change the MP but it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory. It will make the Tory MP just that little bit less complacent.
3. Does the MP pay enough attention to local issues (like over-development?) register your disapproval of local over-development by voting SDP, a party that puts local people first and greedy developers at the back.
4. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
5. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party? As you won’t change the MP wouldn’t it be worthwhile registering your disapproval of this ugliness by voting SDP and depriving Labour of your vote?
6. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit. Vote SDP!
7. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Tory? Or pro democracy?
8. We (quite rightly) have laws to protect 16 year olds from sexual and financial predators. Do you think giving votes to 16 year olds and opening them up to political predators is a good idea? The Labour party supports votes for 16 year olds! Will you vote for that? Or vote SDP so showing your disapproval of hard-line Labour policy
9. You do know the sitting Tory MP campaigned to remain in 2016 don’t you? He won’t be replaced in this election but you can keep him inline by voting for the only candidate that supported Brexit from the outset. The SDP candidate.
10. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored.