The SDP: 2019 Epping Forest

In a strange nerdish way these vote analysis posts for SDP contested seats are good fun.

But be warned: My interpretation of what votes can be stolen from where by the small SDP party may be a load of baloney.

Trusting my analysis would be a bit like trusting another passenger to land a 747 because he read one of the manuals a couple of years ago.

But it at least keeps me out of the pub for a few hours.

Anyway here's the next one - for Epping Forest.

To call this a safe Tory seat would be the understatement of the century. 62% of the electorate voted for them in 2017.

Just remember 2017 was a badly run and poorly fought election by the Torys! They still got 62%.

Labour are a distant second and the Libdems garner a couple of thousand votes.

No UKIP candidate and more importantly no Brexit Party candidate are standing in this election. So the SDP candidate is the only other Brexit supporting candidate other than the sitting MP.

The SDP candidate is Jon Newham.

Here’s the candidate list and the last election result.

There are a couple of interesting things with this constituency.

First off if you look at the 2015 General Election result (below) you will find that the UKIP vote was considerable. It stood at 9000 votes. They made a large dent in both the Labour and Tory vote and pushed Labour into third place. Even so the Tory majority in 2015 was still much the same as in 2017.

In 2017 it looks like the Labour party robbed the LibDems and the Greens. They also possibly took around a third of the UKIP vote. I’d suggest that this third (or about 3000 voters) will be desperately looking for a new home. With all the shenanegins with anti-semitism and general Corbynista nastiness maybe there would be more.

It is worth noting that the Labour candidate is a keen supporter (actually a driver of Labour policy in this area) for votes at 16, which in my humble opinion is very unpopular with most people over the age of 30. I would think that this would be a strong lever in prying away older voters from the Labour Party.

The mountain of the Tory vote may get tweaked for those ex-UKIP voters. They may be keen leavers but are possibly reluctant Tories. They don't have Brexit Party to migrate to. But they will still need persuasion that moving their vote to the SDP they will not change the MP or damage Brexit. Possibly 4000 volatile voters here?

So in total about (maybe) 7000 votes up for grabs by the SDP. That is of course, IF those 7000 can be identified and persuaded. I reckon a 1000 votes at the end of the day would be a fantastic result.

So what would be the best way of promoting the SDP in this seat? Here’s my eight arguments.

They may be rubbish but they may just get you to generate better ones!

(And YES! they DO change slightly post to post. Honest!)

1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. So by voting for the SDP you will not be damaging Brexit. Whatever you vote and whether you like it or not, the MP is secure. 
2. Your vote matters. It will not change the MP but it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory. It will make the Tory MP just that little bit less complacent.
3. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
4. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party? As you won’t change the MP wouldn’t it be worthwhile registering your disapproval of this ugliness by voting SDP and depriving Labour of your vote?
5. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit. Vote SDP!
6. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Tory? Or pro democracy?
7. We (quite rightly) have laws to protect 16 year olds from sexual and financial predators. Do you think giving votes to 16 year olds and opening them up to political predators is a good idea? The Labour party candidate does! He thinks giving votes to 16 year olds is a great idea! Will you vote for that? Or vote SDP so showing your dissaproval?
8. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored.
9. The SDP candidate supports Brexit. None of the other candidates other than the MP do. So if you want to register support for Brexit you have a straight choice Tory or SDP. Neither choice will change the final election result. But a vote for SDP will help focus the Tories on Brexit.