The SDP: 2019 Cambridge

For reasons unknown even to me, I decided to have a look at the 20 seats being contested by the SDP in this coming General Election. (Maybe I should get out more).

This is the second post in the series.

Caveat Emptor:

My experience in analysing voting trends can be summed up in two words. "Bugger all".

So what you see is what you get. It may right. It may be wrong. Or anywhere in the middle. You decide. But I hope it is at least somewhat entertaining.

Cambridge is Remainer Heaven. At least 80% of the last general election vote went to partys that now support Remain.

The only potential fly in the ointment for them is that there will (possibly) be a reluctance from a small proportion of the Labour voters to vote for a hard core Remain MP who is also in favour of scrapping Trident.

The SDP candidate is Jane Robins

This will be a very hard seat to do well in. So good luck to Jane.

The immediate pain here is that the Brexit Party is standing as well as the SDP. They will potentially hoover up most discontented ex-UKIP  voters who didn't even have a candidate in 2017.

This is an ultra strong remain seat. The turnout rose by almost 10% between 2015 and 2017 probably due to students voting. Almost all of that 10% appears to have gone to Labour. It is an unequal fight between Labour and LibDems who between them hold 80% of the turnout.

One light on the horizon is that the 2015 UKIP candidate was the redoubtable Patrick O’Flynn who may have some local street cred and would be well worth parading about on the streets. (;-)

In the 2016 EU Referendum 26% voted to leave. Yet only 16% voted Tory in 2017. Which suggests Labour and the Lib Dems are hiding about 5000 leave voters between them.

Nationally, thirty per cent of LibDem voters voted Leave in 2016. As we are dealing with voters not party apparachtiks maybe there’s some room there with maybe up to (say) 2000 potential voters?

However this may be wishful thinking. Leaver LibDems may have already migrated to the Labour Party in 2017.

Maybe targeting Labour would be the most fruitful. Labour leavers must be feeling very uncomfortable about how the party has done a volte face on Brexit and may consider abandoning them. But going to the Tories or Farage's Brexit Party would be a step too far.

Also maybe its worth trying  to woo UKIP voters though I suspect most of those will either stay Tory or go to Brexit Party.

I think it unlikely that many of the 9000 Conservative voters would migrate to the SDP. Though you never know. If John Haywood is not particularly well liked then that may be an avenue for persuasion.

Here’s my pennys worth of campaign statements which is probably useless. But it may trigger you to think up better ones..

Basically it comes down to targeting the 30% leavers (irrespective of party) in the seat and to exploit Labour vulnerabilities.

  1. Cambridge is a armour plated safe Remain seat. There is no chance for anyone other than Labour. Even the LibDems are almost 13,000 votes behind Labour. So if your are a leaver, by voting for a party other than the Tories you will not be betraying Brexit. But choose your party well. You have a choice between the Torys, a one policy Brexit party or the SDP.
  2. Your vote matters. It will not change the MP from being a Remainer but it will potentially set the trend for the future – and allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory.
  3. The SDP has been around for 40 years. Do you think the Brexit Party will be around after next year?
  4. The SDP respects democracy. If you voted to remain we respect your decision and we will not vilify it. But democracy is paramount.
  5. Why not show support for an honest but small party? You vote will not change the MP whatever you vote! But it may have a big effect on the way partys view the issues you are concerned with.
  6. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party?
  7. Do you want you vote to support a party that said it will ignore the biggest referendum in our history like the LibDems?
  8. The MP in this constituency will be a Remain supporter. You won’t change that. But you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite. Vote SDP.
  9. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? So when they total up the votes at the end, which pile will your be in? Pro Corbyn? Or pro democracy?
  10. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it would be ignored.
  11. Do you support scrapping Trident? The Labour and LibDem candidates do! Do you think they are serious about defence? Are you?
Potentially (maybe) 5000 votes up for grabs? But very, very difficult due to Brexit Party and very large Remain vote base. A thousand votes on the day will be ultra impressive.

Jane Robins of the SDP has a mountain to climb. 

But she’s a good Gal. 

Lets hope she makes an impact.

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