The SDP: 2019 Thirsk and Malton

Time for another amateur analysis of one of the seats being contested by the SDP in the forthcoming General Election. Here is a look at a Conservative safe seat that is being contested by a brave SDP candidate by the name of Michael Taylor.

Thirsk & Malton is a Tory stronghold in North Yorkshire. In the last election they took 60% of the vote. In the EU referendum the constituency voted 56% to leave the EU. This constituency will not change hands in December 2019.

Interestingly Mike Taylor (SDP) is the only candidate that has supported Brexit from the outset. The sitting MP (Kevin Hollinrake) was (in 2016) a supporter of Remain. Today it looks like Kevin Hollinrake is really a somewhat reluctant Brexiteer.

I would suggest Kevin Hollinrake supports Johnson out of party loyalty rather than due to any “road to Damascus” conversion. In fact he voiced opposition to Johnsons “do or die” ideal of leaving the EU on October 31st.

I would suggest that the sitting MP is in all intents and purposes still a Remainer at heart. I would suspect that although he may tow the party line after the election, he will potentially be a thorn in the side of those negotiating the future Trading relationship with the EU.

There is no UKIP or Brexit Party Candidate. The rump 2017 UKIP vote (1500 voters) has to be looking for a home. They did not go to the Conservatives or Labour in 2017 so where else is there for them to go in 2019 other than to a true Brexit supporting party like the SDP?

In 2015 the UKIP vote was almost as big as Labour's. In 2015 UKIP took just under 8000 votes. It looks like between 2015 and 2017 the UKIP vote shed 2000 voters to Labour and 4500 to the Conservatives.

So there should be a considerable number of discontented Leave voting Labour supporters who have given up on Corbyn’s debacle of a Brexit policy. They may well be looking for a new home, especially for one with strong traditional Labour roots.

It could well be that these leave voters just won’t vote Tory ever. Especially for one who was a Remainer. So this may well be fertile territory.

As for the disgruntled leavers in that mountain of Conservative voters, there is the opportunity to tweak the sitting MPs tail by voting for the SDP. There is no chance of letting in Labour (or anyone else) by the back door. A protest vote to support a real Brexiteer may well just make their day.

So lets say the whole of the ex-UKIP vote and perhaps another 2000 voters apiece from both the Conservative and Labour partys are volatile. They will consider voting for a true Brexiteer in the election. That is 12,000 volatile voters.

Resources are of course limited. But with a bit of luck and fortuitous canvassing then maybe 1000 can be pulled into the SDP camp which would be brilliant. But a vote in the few hundreds would still be a publicity victory.

So here are my crap ideas on what to promote to entice voters to vote SDP.

They are probably rubbish but maybe one or two will hit the spot.

1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. Whatever you vote and whether you like it or not, the MP is secure.
2. Your vote still matters. It will not change the MP but it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory. It will make the Tory MP just that little bit less complacent.
3. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
4. Attack Labour on their hideous record on bigotry and antisemitism. The MP cannot be changed by voting Labour. So wouldn’t it be worthwhile registering your disapproval of this antisemitic ugliness by voting SDP and depriving Labour of your vote?
5. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit and work against it.
6. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Remainer Tory? Or pro democracy?
7. We (quite rightly) have laws to protect 16 year olds from sexual and financial predators. Do you think giving votes to 16 year olds and opening them up to political predators is a good idea? The Labour party supports votes for 16 year olds! Will you vote for that? Or vote SDP so showing your disapproval of hard-line "woke" Labour policy
8. You do know the sitting Tory MP supported remain in 2016 don’t you? He won’t be replaced in this election but you can keep him inline by voting for the only candidate that supported Brexit from the outset. The SDP candidate.
9. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored.

The SDP: 2019 Tottenham

You just have to admire people who are willing to put themselves through hell to stand  in no-hope seats. Of those seats Tottenham is potentially the most difficult. 

The SDP candidate in this case is Andrew Bence. So whatever party you support Andrew Bence deserves our most wholehearted respect.

If you wanted to define a safe seat, then Tottenham has to be a primary contender. The sitting MP (David Lammy) took 80% of the votes in 2017 on a 68% turnout. Or to put it another way David Lammy got well over 4 times the votes than of all the other candidates combined.

In the 2016 EU referendum 76% of the Tottenham vote in the referendum was for Remain.

So Tottenham is both a Labour and a Remainer Citadel.

Nobody is going to be elected here except for David Lammy. The only candidate in the election other than David Lammy who is even likely to save their deposit is the Conservative candidate. The Conservatives in 2017 came a distant second with 11% of the vote.

This is by definition going to be a difficult seat for anyone other than Labour to get votes in.

Even so, the Leave vote in the 2016 EU referendum was about 18,000. Due to the virtual non-existence of UKIP around 13,000 of those 18,000 voters must have voted for Lammy in the 2017 General Election.

The Brexit Party is also fielding a candidate. So unfortunately any of those 13000 Labour leave voters disgruntled enough to look for another party is going to have three to choose from.

Perhaps it would be best for the SDP candidate to emphasise the Social Democratic nature of the SDP and it’s Labour origins. Then distance themselves from both the Conservatives and the Brexit Party. Present the SDP as the socially responsible party for leavers to vote for.

Lammy is a senior politician and as such is perhaps (as most senior politicians are) somewhat of an occasional visitor to his patch. If there are any local issues that have been left to fester, then cultivating a protest vote about these ignored issues might get some mileage. Local social issues, especially those that might be also ignored by the Conservative candidate due to party policy would be well worth exploring.

I have looked at how other minor partys have fared in the past in this seat. I think a result in the low hundreds will be a good result. Anything over 400 will be a milestone. A 1000 would be groundbreaking.

So what would be the best way of promoting the SDP in this seat? Here’s seven suggestions.

They may range from worthwhile to totally irrelevant in this seat. I don’t know. They are just suggestions.

1. Tottenham is an armour plated safe Labour seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than Labour. So if they feel disgruntled with current Labour policy or the MP they can safely register a protest vote.
2. Your SDP vote will not change the MP but it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory. It will make the current MP just that little bit less complacent.
3. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote will not change the MP! But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
4. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party? As you won’t change the MP wouldn’t it be worthwhile registering your disapproval of this ugliness by voting SDP? It might help to make them sit up and take notice.
5. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit.
6. The Torys can never hope to achieve anything here. The Brexit party is unlikely to survive another two years. Wouldn’t it be worthwhile building up a viable alternative voice to Labour in Tottenham? Even if its just to keep the Labour MP on his toes and reduce the endemic complacency that comes with a safe seat.
7. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored.
8. Local issues. Bring up local issues. Especially those that have been allowed to run out of control without much/any input from the sitting MP.

The SDP: 2019 Havant

The SDP are standing a candidate in the Havant Constituency in Hampshire in the 2019 General Election.

Here's my take on what they might achieve, where the potential SDP voters will come from and how many of them there are. Of course, this is just my opinion but I think it adds up.

In my humble opinion this is one of the best prospects for a decent vote share for the SDP in all of the 20 seats being contested by them.

Havant is an impregnable Tory seat and always has been. In the last election the sitting Tory MP (Alan Mak) garnered almost 60% of the vote. His majority alone was bigger than the vote share achieved by the Labour Party. This seat will not change hands.

There is no UKIP and (more importantly) no Brexit party candidate. The SDP candidate is in fact the sole Brexiteer. Alan Mak campaigned in 2016 to remain. This should be a strong lever to prize off disgruntled Brexiteers from the mountainous Tory vote.

Alan Maks majority amounts to a full 34% of the votes cast. So all voters should realise that Alan Mak will not be replaced whatever they vote. Voters can safely express their displeasure at his remainerism.

Voters can diminish Mak's vote share by voting for the only candidate that supported Brexit from the start - the SDP candidate. They can do this without fear of letting in the Labour Party by the back door.

The SDP candidate in this election is Alan Black.

Here is the candidate list and 2017 general Election result

In 2015 UKIP gained a considerable vote share with 9000 votes. When they collapsed in 2017 about about 4000 of their votes went to the Tories and about 3000 went to Labour. There remained a rump of about 2000 UKIP votes in 2017.

Interestingly there was an independent candidate in 2017. She gained nearly a 1000 votes. It appears her campaign centred around over-development in the area which could be another good lever to gain votes. (more research required)

Explaining to voters that this seat will not change hands is crucial.

There is a rump of 2000 UKIP votes with nowhere to go other than the SDP. 

There is the 3000 that migrated to the Labour party that must also be desperately looking for somewhere to go. 

The 4000 UKIP votes that went to the Tories will also feel queasy if they are enlightened to the fact that Alan Mak actually campaigned for Remain in 2016 even though he had previously described himself as a Euro-Sceptic. 

For these Tory voters, finding a real Brexiteer (SDP) candidate while being shown that Alan Maks majority is so huge that there is no possibility of inadvertantly letting in a Labour or LibDem will be an eye-opener.

Besides the ex-ukippers, the Labour vote is up for squeezing anyway. They have in essence abandoned their leave supporting Labour voters. Add to that the nastiness about anti-semitism and I reckon theres about 2-3000 Labour votes other than the 3000 ex-ukippers up for grabs.

Add in the 1000 votes that went to the lady independent and there is a lot to play for here.

I reckon that in total there is possibly up to 12000 volatile votes that are maybe looking for a new home. Most of those will be abandoned or mislead leave voters who would like to punish either the Tories or Labour.

The Tory voters will all will fear a Labour government. Reassuring them that voting SDP cannot let in the Labour candidate by the back door is paramount.

The reverse is true for the Labour voters.

Telling them the truth that whatever they vote they will not change the MP will mean they can register their disapproval with Corbyn and his (less than) merry men.

So what would be the best way of promoting the SDP in this seat? Here’s my ten arguments.

They may be rubbish but they may just get you to generate better ones!

1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. So by voting for party other than the Tories you will not be damaging Brexit. Whatever you vote and whether you like it or not, the MP is secure.
2. Your vote matters. It will not change the MP but it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory. It will make the Tory MP just that little bit less complacent.
3. Does the MP pay enough attention to local issues (like over-development?) register your disapproval of local over-development by voting SDP, a party that puts local people first and greedy developers at the back.
4. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
5. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party? As you won’t change the MP wouldn’t it be worthwhile registering your disapproval of this ugliness by voting SDP and depriving Labour of your vote?
6. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit. Vote SDP!
7. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Tory? Or pro democracy?
8. We (quite rightly) have laws to protect 16 year olds from sexual and financial predators. Do you think giving votes to 16 year olds and opening them up to political predators is a good idea? The Labour party supports votes for 16 year olds! Will you vote for that? Or vote SDP so showing your disapproval of hard-line Labour policy
9. You do know the sitting Tory MP campaigned to remain in 2016 don’t you? He won’t be replaced in this election but you can keep him inline by voting for the only candidate that supported Brexit from the outset. The SDP candidate.
10. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored.

The SDP: 2019 Epping Forest

In a strange nerdish way these vote analysis posts for SDP contested seats are good fun.

But be warned: My interpretation of what votes can be stolen from where by the small SDP party may be a load of baloney.

Trusting my analysis would be a bit like trusting another passenger to land a 747 because he read one of the manuals a couple of years ago.

But it at least keeps me out of the pub for a few hours.

Anyway here's the next one - for Epping Forest.

To call this a safe Tory seat would be the understatement of the century. 62% of the electorate voted for them in 2017.

Just remember 2017 was a badly run and poorly fought election by the Torys! They still got 62%.

Labour are a distant second and the Libdems garner a couple of thousand votes.

No UKIP candidate and more importantly no Brexit Party candidate are standing in this election. So the SDP candidate is the only other Brexit supporting candidate other than the sitting MP.

The SDP candidate is Jon Newham.

Here’s the candidate list and the last election result.

There are a couple of interesting things with this constituency.

First off if you look at the 2015 General Election result (below) you will find that the UKIP vote was considerable. It stood at 9000 votes. They made a large dent in both the Labour and Tory vote and pushed Labour into third place. Even so the Tory majority in 2015 was still much the same as in 2017.

In 2017 it looks like the Labour party robbed the LibDems and the Greens. They also possibly took around a third of the UKIP vote. I’d suggest that this third (or about 3000 voters) will be desperately looking for a new home. With all the shenanegins with anti-semitism and general Corbynista nastiness maybe there would be more.

It is worth noting that the Labour candidate is a keen supporter (actually a driver of Labour policy in this area) for votes at 16, which in my humble opinion is very unpopular with most people over the age of 30. I would think that this would be a strong lever in prying away older voters from the Labour Party.

The mountain of the Tory vote may get tweaked for those ex-UKIP voters. They may be keen leavers but are possibly reluctant Tories. They don't have Brexit Party to migrate to. But they will still need persuasion that moving their vote to the SDP they will not change the MP or damage Brexit. Possibly 4000 volatile voters here?

So in total about (maybe) 7000 votes up for grabs by the SDP. That is of course, IF those 7000 can be identified and persuaded. I reckon a 1000 votes at the end of the day would be a fantastic result.

So what would be the best way of promoting the SDP in this seat? Here’s my eight arguments.

They may be rubbish but they may just get you to generate better ones!

(And YES! they DO change slightly post to post. Honest!)

1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. So by voting for the SDP you will not be damaging Brexit. Whatever you vote and whether you like it or not, the MP is secure. 
2. Your vote matters. It will not change the MP but it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory. It will make the Tory MP just that little bit less complacent.
3. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
4. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party? As you won’t change the MP wouldn’t it be worthwhile registering your disapproval of this ugliness by voting SDP and depriving Labour of your vote?
5. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit. Vote SDP!
6. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Tory? Or pro democracy?
7. We (quite rightly) have laws to protect 16 year olds from sexual and financial predators. Do you think giving votes to 16 year olds and opening them up to political predators is a good idea? The Labour party candidate does! He thinks giving votes to 16 year olds is a great idea! Will you vote for that? Or vote SDP so showing your dissaproval?
8. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored.
9. The SDP candidate supports Brexit. None of the other candidates other than the MP do. So if you want to register support for Brexit you have a straight choice Tory or SDP. Neither choice will change the final election result. But a vote for SDP will help focus the Tories on Brexit.

The SDP: 2019 Cambridge

For reasons unknown even to me, I decided to have a look at the 20 seats being contested by the SDP in this coming General Election. (Maybe I should get out more).

This is the second post in the series.

Caveat Emptor:

My experience in analysing voting trends can be summed up in two words. "Bugger all".

So what you see is what you get. It may right. It may be wrong. Or anywhere in the middle. You decide. But I hope it is at least somewhat entertaining.


Cambridge is Remainer Heaven. At least 80% of the last general election vote went to partys that now support Remain.

The only potential fly in the ointment for them is that there will (possibly) be a reluctance from a small proportion of the Labour voters to vote for a hard core Remain MP who is also in favour of scrapping Trident.

The SDP candidate is Jane Robins. 

This will be a very hard seat to do well in. So good luck to Jane.

The immediate pain here is that the Brexit Party is standing as well as the SDP. They will potentially hoover up most discontented ex-UKIP  voters who didn't even have a candidate in 2017.

This is an ultra strong remain seat. The turnout rose by almost 10% between 2015 and 2017 probably due to students voting. Almost all of that 10% appears to have gone to Labour. It is an unequal fight between Labour and LibDems who between them hold 80% of the turnout.

One light on the horizon is that the 2015 UKIP candidate was the redoubtable Patrick O’Flynn who may have some local street cred and would be well worth parading about on the streets. (;-)

In the 2016 EU Referendum 26% voted to leave. Yet only 16% voted Tory in 2017. Which suggests Labour and the Lib Dems are hiding about 5000 leave voters between them.

Nationally, thirty per cent of LibDem voters voted Leave in 2016. As we are dealing with voters not party apparachtiks maybe there’s some room there with maybe up to (say) 2000 potential voters?

However this may be wishful thinking. Leaver LibDems may have already migrated to the Labour Party in 2017.

Maybe targeting Labour would be the most fruitful. Labour leavers must be feeling very uncomfortable about how the party has done a volte face on Brexit and may consider abandoning them. But going to the Tories or Farage's Brexit Party would be a step too far.

Also maybe its worth trying  to woo UKIP voters though I suspect most of those will either stay Tory or go to Brexit Party.

I think it unlikely that many of the 9000 Conservative voters would migrate to the SDP. Though you never know. If John Haywood is not particularly well liked then that may be an avenue for persuasion.

Here’s my pennys worth of campaign statements which is probably useless. But it may trigger you to think up better ones..

Basically it comes down to targeting the 30% leavers (irrespective of party) in the seat and to exploit Labour vulnerabilities.

1. Cambridge is a armour plated safe Remain seat. There is no chance for anyone other than Labour. Even the LibDems are almost 13,000 votes behind Labour. So if your are a leaver, by voting for a party other than the Tories you will not be betraying Brexit. But choose your party well. You have a choice between the Torys, a one policy Brexit party or the SDP.
2. Your vote matters. It will not change the MP from being a Remainer but it will potentially set the trend for the future – and allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory.
3. The SDP has been around for 40 years. Do you think the Brexit Party will be around after next year?
4. The SDP respects democracy. If you voted to remain we respect your decision and we will not vilify it. But democracy is paramount.
5. Why not show support for an honest but small party? You vote will not change the MP whatever you vote! But it may have a big effect on the way partys view the issues you are concerned with.
6. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party?
7. Do you want you vote to support a party that said it will ignore the biggest referendum in our history like the LibDems?
8. The MP in this constituency will be a Remain supporter. You won’t change that. But you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite. Vote SDP.
9. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? So when they total up the votes at the end, which pile will your be in? Pro Corbyn? Or pro democracy?
10. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it would be ignored.
11. Do you support scrapping Trident? The Labour and LibDem candidates do! Do you think they are serious about defence? Are you?

Potentially (maybe) 5000 votes up for grabs? But very, very difficult due to Brexit Party and very large Remain vote base. A thousand votes on the day will be ultra impressive.

Jane Robins of the SDP has a mountain to climb. 

But she’s a good Gal. 

Lets hope she makes an impact.

The SDP: 2019 Basildon & Billericay

As there are people in the SDP who have the guts to stand in the coming General Election (and in no-hope seats at that) I thought the least I could do would be to have a quick review of some of these seats. Just to see what they are up against.

I don't have any magic insight or skill at this. Just a few hours to spare poking about on Google. This may be useful or it may be a waste of time. But whatever, here it is!

First on the list of seats being contested by the SDP is Basildon & Billericay. It is a stupendously safe Conservative seat. 

The SDP candidate is Simon Breedon. 

While he has the typical safe seat mountain to climb, the seat does have some interesting dynamics mainly brought about by the fact that unless you vote Conservative (and to be fair most do!) the only other choice for a Brexit honouring candidate is Simon.

Here is the candidate list and the General Election 2017 result.

So where’s the meat and potatoes in this lot?

UKIP (and the Brexit Party) are gone. The Greens are new and will probably only steal votes off the Lib Dems and the maybe a few from the Labour party. The Lib Dem vote probably reflects a group of hard core Remainers who are unlikely to swap to SDP.

But where did the UKIP vote go? It appears about two thirds went to the Torys and one third to Labour. The election turnout in 2017 was 2% up on 2015. In 2015 UKIP came third with 20% of the vote. It appears most of that from 2015 has gone to the Tories. But not all.

How soft is the Labour vote? It has actually grown over the last 3 elections and it would appear that the increased turnout in 2017 gave it a boost.

BUT that was before all the back-sliding on Brexit or the worries about anti-semitism and Corbynism.

Certainly the proportion of UKIP votes that went to Labour in 2017 (maybe 3000) will be looking for a home. Maybe another 2000 Labour supporters would be readily open to persuasion.

As for the Conservative vote, maybe some of the UKIP vote that migrated here will be available. A lot of these people will not be convinced Tories and never were. Say 1000.

So I reckon there are up to 3-4000 voters that are potentially up for grabs by the SDP. Realistically a result in the high hundreds will be a victory.

So what would be the best way of promoting the SDP in this seat? Here’s my seven arguments.

They may be rubbish but they may just get folk to generate better ones!

1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. So by voting for partys other than the Tories you will not be betraying Brexit or risk changing the MP for that matter.
2. Your vote still matters. It will not change the MP. But it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory.
3. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote whatever it is will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
4. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party?
5. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite. Especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit and you can do this without voting Tory. Vote SDP!
6. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Tory? Or pro democracy?
7. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored and lost.

Good luck to Simon Breedon, SDP candidate for the 2019 General Election: Basildon & Billericay

BillotheWisp’s SDP Attack Dog

Give him ten years and he will have your leg off.

You may be surprised to hear that the small Social Democratic Party (SDP) are standing candidates in no less than 20 seats this General Election.

In fact I was amazed and pleasantly so.

The SDP is a thoroughly decent party that deserves support. So I thought I’d spend a some time just looking at the potential for these 20 candidates.

So here are my thoughts. They may be right. They may be wrong. But I hope you find them interesting.

Lets deal with what will be presented as “the down side” first

Will these 20 SDP candidates potentially split the Leave vote? Could they allow the LibDems (or any other bunch of juveniles) in through the back door?

The answer to that is a resounding NO!

All of these seats are safe seats for the present incumbent. To anyone other than the existing MP they are no-hopers (that includes the SDP).

In other words (short of a miracle) there will be no change to the MP in any of these 20 seats.

You may well ask: What is the point in fighting in a constituency when you know you are going to lose?

For the larger partys that is a moot point. To them concentrating on no-hope safe seats would be crazy. In safe seats (when held by another party), the big party’s often just field a paper candidate. A token. Someone who in all likelihood will be here today and gone tomorrow.

But for a small party like the SDP seeking to expand its base, this is all about getting noticed and building a base. No SDP candidate will be gone tomorrow. Win or lose.

The most important aspect to this is that these seats are safe seats with majorities for the current MP in the many thousands.. So any individual voting for any of the partys standing, in essence knows their vote will not change the outcome.

Let’s say you are a traditional Labour supporter in a safe Conservative seat.

You won’t vote Tory. Especially as they will win the seat anyway.

But maybe you are committed to Leaving the EU. What can you do?

Do you vote for the spotty ex-student neo-Marxist paper candidate who is an ardent Remainer? Someone who abhors your EU preference and probably views you and your family with disdain?

Are you really going to register one more vote of support for Jeremy Corbyn? A man who in all likelihood is somebody you despise?

Look at it the other way. Say you are in a safe Labour seat.

Again whatever you vote will make no difference to who is the MP. But should you add support to the winner when you know they have been (in all likelihood) architects of the opposition to Brexit?

Are you going to vote Conservative when Conservative policies (other than Brexit) feel suspect?

Then what about the Brexit party?

To me it looks like the Brexit Party is imploding. It has little apparent policy other than that implied by its name. To me it looks like they are dying. A vote for them in these circumstances would truly be a wasted vote.

As for the Lib Dems – well, surprise, surpise!

Thirty per cent of Liberal Democrats voted to leave in 2016.

Where are they going to go?

Will they pile up votes for the local Corbynista? Vote Tory? Vote for the “new” LibDems that discarded democracy like a used tissue?

The alternative is a party that has actually sorted out policy and has a route plan. The SDP.

They won’t win. But none of the others will either. But a vote for the SDP will be another brick in building a truly fair, non elitist working class movement. A vote that would, if used otherwise, count for nothing.

This will be a hard month for those standing for the SDP. In reality getting a thousand votes will be impressive. Saving their deposit (5% of the turnout – say 2500 votes) will be a victory. Any more than that will be amazing.

I don’t think that any SDP MP’s will be elected. Though it would be nice. I suspect most candidates however hard they work, will just get a few hundred votes.

But with a bit of prompting the decent people of this country, whose vote will otherwise count for little, may be persuaded to start the ball rolling and register a vote for change.

Maybe not change today. But change for their children and the future.

What I intend to do in the next series of posts is promote a number of the constituencies in which the SDP are standing. If for no other reason than to give them a tiny bit more publicity and Google link love.

These will be my unprompted thoughts (no one else’s). I hope they help. If they don’t then discard them.