The SDP: 2019 Basildon & Billericay

As there are people in the SDP who have the guts to stand in the coming General Election (and in no-hope seats at that) I thought the least I could do would be to have a quick review of some of these seats. Just to see what they are up against.

I don't have any magic insight or skill at this. Just a few hours to spare poking about on Google. This may be useful or it may be a waste of time. But whatever, here it is!

First on the list of seats being contested by the SDP is Basildon & Billericay. It is a stupendously safe Conservative seat. 

The SDP candidate is Simon Breedon. 

While he has the typical safe seat mountain to climb, the seat does have some interesting dynamics mainly brought about by the fact that unless you vote Conservative (and to be fair most do!) the only other choice for a Brexit honouring candidate is Simon.

Here is the candidate list and the General Election 2017 result.

So where’s the meat and potatoes in this lot?

UKIP (and the Brexit Party) are gone. The Greens are new and will probably only steal votes off the Lib Dems and the maybe a few from the Labour party. The Lib Dem vote probably reflects a group of hard core Remainers who are unlikely to swap to SDP.

But where did the UKIP vote go? It appears about two thirds went to the Torys and one third to Labour. The election turnout in 2017 was 2% up on 2015. In 2015 UKIP came third with 20% of the vote. It appears most of that from 2015 has gone to the Tories. But not all.

How soft is the Labour vote? It has actually grown over the last 3 elections and it would appear that the increased turnout in 2017 gave it a boost.

BUT that was before all the back-sliding on Brexit or the worries about anti-semitism and Corbynism.

Certainly the proportion of UKIP votes that went to Labour in 2017 (maybe 3000) will be looking for a home. Maybe another 2000 Labour supporters would be readily open to persuasion.

As for the Conservative vote, maybe some of the UKIP vote that migrated here will be available. A lot of these people will not be convinced Tories and never were. Say 1000.

So I reckon there are up to 3-4000 voters that are potentially up for grabs by the SDP. Realistically a result in the high hundreds will be a victory.

So what would be the best way of promoting the SDP in this seat? Here’s my seven arguments.

They may be rubbish but they may just get folk to generate better ones!

1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. So by voting for partys other than the Tories you will not be betraying Brexit or risk changing the MP for that matter.
2. Your vote still matters. It will not change the MP. But it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory.
3. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote whatever it is will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
4. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party?
5. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite. Especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit and you can do this without voting Tory. Vote SDP!
6. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Tory? Or pro democracy?
7. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored and lost.

Good luck to Simon Breedon, SDP candidate for the 2019 General Election: Basildon & Billericay