Prostitution, Lynyrd Skynryd and Santa

So you thought you’d get away with parking your arse in front of the TV while drinking Baileys out of a pint mug over Christmas did you?

Well I have some news for you Sunshine. And that news involves reading and listening. Here’s a selection of stuff that needs your serious attention over the Christmas.

It includes a short list of books that’ll get your brain-cells rattling over the Christmas break. Most are available in some form of electronic format as well as standard regurgitated dead tree format. They range in price from nothing to about a tenner.

All of these these books had a dramatic affect on my perception of what was really going on in the world. So be warned you may (like me) experience Cognitive Dissonance. (Don’t know what Cognitive Dissonance is? There’s a book on that below too!)

For the ultra lazy (yes I know – that’s most of you) there’s also a couple of really fantastic YouTube Ted Talk videos too. And to cap it all 25 minutes of the live version of Rattlesnake Shake by Peter Greens Fleetwood Mac rounded off by another great Youtube video with Lynyrd Skynryd and  Free Bird from 1977.

Make sure you crank the volume up for Rattlesnake Shake and Free Bird. It is illegal to listen to them quietly.

Merry Xmas.
Love and Kisses.
Billothewisp.

Books that Need Reading

Factfulness

YOU MUST READ THIS BOOK. No ifs. No buts. No excuses. If you want to know exactly why the liars and cheats who keep telling us that we are all about to die are wrong - this is it.

A book that will not only enlighten you to what is really going on in the world but will provide you with suitable ammunition to shoot down the doom-sters when they witter on about how Armagedon is just round the corner.

Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air

The loss of Dr David MacKay was a body blow to the world. But his legacy of "Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air" lives on. Depending on what format you want the price ranges from absolutely nothing to about a fifteen quid. Even if you cant read it right now why not download a free copy for future reference? The free pdf version is HERE

Freakanomics

Oh My God! This book just blew me away. Its nearly fifteen years old now but it is guaranteed to challenge your pre-conceptions on a range of issues. You know - when did you ever consider the following:

"Why do Drug Dealers still live with their Mums?"
Or
"Where have all the Criminals gone?".

Super Freakanomics.

As for Freakanomics - just more-so.
Like:

“How is a Prostitute like a Dept Store Santa?
And:
"Why should suicide bombers buy life insurance?"

Separate Ways

I didn’t read this until twelve years ago. It changed the way I looked at the EU. Admittedly I was getting a little twitchy about the railroading of the Treaty of Lisbon through Parliament even then, but I was to all intents and purposes a EU-Phile, a Remainer (Ugh! - there I’ve said it).

This book, written by the late Peter Shore changed my opinion. It's now only available second hand and is currently eye-wateringly expensive. But cheap copies do come up for a couple of quid now and again..

How to have Impossible Conversations

I’m only half way through this but it is changing the way I address discussions with people with differing views. It come recommended by a star list of  ultra bright and argumentative bastards like Richard Dawkins, Michael Shermer and Marc Andreessen

It is really enlightening. If you want to win people over rather than just win the argument this is the book to read. It a book about how to make converts not just beat your enemies.

When Prophesy Fails.

So what does Cognitive Dissonance mean and why is it important. Here is Lean Festingers masterpiece from the 1950’s where he followed a Flying Saucer cult to find out what would happen when their prophesy of Global Catastrophe failed to materialise.

Read this and you will understand why the UK Labour party is lurching further left after taking the recent election beating. You'll see why Al Gores failed prophesy that the North Pole would be ice free by 2012 simply made cults like Extinction Rebellion double down on their doomstering.

YouTube Videos that must be seen

Don't Panic!

This is so good! It is an entertaining ride through the basics of the book "Factfulness". It is funny informative and downright ideal for watching on Christmas afternoon after having a few noggins. Just Watch it!

The Mysterious Workings of the Adolescent Brain.

Reaching your wits end? Teenager children driving your mad? Here's why.

Music to Die For

RattleSnake Shake.

Recorded nearly 50 years ago this is the live version of "RattleSnake Shake" by Fleetwood Mac.

BE WARNED:
This is NOT the Fleetwood Mac of West Coast music post 1974. This is the Fleetwood Mac of Peter Green (known to Guitar affectionados as the "the Green God").

It's raw.
Bloody even.

If this does not make your hair stand on end then you are already dead.

Sadly it's music only - no video but it'll still wring you out like an old dishcloth.

Free Bird

Lynyrd Skynryd live in 1977. Savor the atmosphere and the sheer power of this rendition. Then marvel at the rows of pretty girls (who are all now in their late 50s early 60's).

Utterly and completely magnificent.



Merry Christmas.

Crime and Contraception

Something “funny” is happening to the UK crime rate. It is going down.

OK I know there’s some political massaging of figures and fiddling around the edges to make things look better. 

But really, there is less crime now (especially violent crime) than there was back in the 80’s and 90’s.

Here’s the graph from here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46984559

“Yea! Ba-Phooey!” I hear you cry. Its the bloody BBC again!

Well, yes. 

But even so, (believe me) crime has decreased significantly since 1995. Of course there is still ugly peaks and troughs as various types of criminality go in or out of fashion. 

Yet statistically, looking across the board, the crime rate (especially violent crime) has decreased.

But Why?

There are those who will tell you its because of “more modern” policing, or some special social program, more bobbies on the beat or even less bobbies on the beat.

But no. People suggesting such things are often simply making it up as they go along. They are simply mouthing their best guess.

But there is a solidly researched and scientifically verifiable reason.

I must admit though I do find that reason somewhat discomforting.

My Eureka moment regarding a falling crime rate came when I was about one third the way through a fantastically enlightening and entertaining book called Freakanomics – Link Here. (stunningly important book – read it!)

I reached Chapter Four “Where have all the Criminals Gone?” It was, to put it biblically, like having the scales fall from my eyes.

Freakanomics is an American book. The USA peaked out their crime rate in 1989 – not too different from the UK in 1995. So I wondered if the reason for the collapse in the American crime rate was mirrored in the UK. 

But before we look at that lets explore the reasons for the USA crime rate fall.

Why did the USA crime rate peak in 1989? Why has it been falling ever since? Put simply, the USA introduced abortion on demand around 1970.

Who has an abortion? Back before 1970 in the USA it was only the relatively wealthy and well connected. 

After 1970 abortion became increasingly available to all income groups. So if you were a poor vulnerable girl who accidentally became pregnant, instead of becoming a failing young mother, you now had abortion as an answer to an otherwise desperate situation.

The birth rate to low income single teenage girls collapsed. Young unsophisticated girls, often barely more than children and usually the product of a casual teenage liaison themselves were allowed to grow up without the burden of an unwanted and (often) uncared-for child to look after.

Before the introduction of freely available abortion the offspring of these often feral teenagers grew up to become feral teenagers themselves. The cycle continued.

As they grew up these accidental children had no role model (beyond the local drug-dealer). As the males matured many turned to criminality (90% of crime is attributable to young males). Or if female – they got pregnant and simply re-fuelled the vicious social lock-in that had brought them into the world in the first place.

Criminality is mostly a problem among feral young males aged 15 to 27. After the age of 27 there is a marked and prolonged decrease in male criminality. Of course other groups do commit crimes but young males from broken or non-existent homes form the bulk of modern day criminals.

With each passing year after 1970 the abortions continued. The reservoir of future criminals decreased. Then in 1989 about twenty years after the introduction of freely available abortion in the USA, the reservoir began to empty. The physical number of criminals in their early twenties or late teens began to decrease.

Less uncared-for feral children make for less young criminals. And less young criminals make for less crime.

Stunningly simple. Even though it feels somewhat discomforting.

So does this scenario pan out for the UK too? It looks like it does. 

When abortion was introduced into the UK in 1969 uptake was relatively slow. In 1970 the number of abortions was 86,000 while in 1975 (twenty years before the peak in crime rate) it had risen to 140,000. From then on it levelled off at around 190,000. Today it is just over 200,000 per year.

So around 20 years after the provision of easily accessible abortion in the UK, the crime rate started to fall. Just as it had in the USA.

This is not to say that this is the only reason for falling crime rates but it is without doubt a (very) major factor.

But nobody (and I base this on many conversations with female friends) likes abortion as a method of birth control.

Ironically the best way to avoid abortions is not by abstention (didn’t work in the 80’s and won’t work now) but by free and readily available contraception. Especially to those most likely to fall into the teenage pregnancy trap and are sadly the least likely to get pro-active support and help.

Maybe by pro-actively promoting contraception more we can reduce the abortion rate and still keep the benefits of a lower crime rate.

Remember the problem here is with contraception for young people who are probably already having difficulty growing up and need to be guided by more capable individuals. For example we are not dealing with the typical emancipated and pro-active young woman who can sort her self out.

Criminality is driven by a surprisingly small sector of society. (more in a later post). That is why the advent of freely available abortion has had such a large impact upon it. 

But abortion can be traumatic. A better regime of contraceptive support especially for the vulnerable can cut this trauma and still reduce unwanted pregnancies.

To me promoting contraception seems a much better idea than simply relying on abortion. While maintaining a falling crime rate is a big societal bonus.

I think few would disagree.