Something “funny”
is happening to the UK crime rate. It is going down.
OK I know there’s some political massaging of figures and fiddling around the edges to make
things look better.
But really, there is less crime now (especially violent crime) than
there was back in the 80’s and 90’s.
Here’s the graph
from here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46984559
“Yea! Ba-Phooey!”
I hear you cry. Its the bloody BBC again!
Well, yes.
But even
so, (believe me) crime has decreased significantly since 1995. Of
course there is still ugly peaks and troughs as various types of
criminality go in or out of fashion.
Yet statistically, looking
across the board, the crime rate (especially violent crime) has
decreased.
But Why?
There are those who
will tell you its because of “more modern” policing, or some
special social program, more bobbies on the beat or even less bobbies
on the beat.
But no. People
suggesting such things are often simply making it up as they go
along. They are simply mouthing their best guess.
But there is a
solidly researched and scientifically verifiable reason.
I must admit though
I do find that reason somewhat discomforting.
My Eureka moment
regarding a falling crime rate came when I was about one third the
way through a fantastically enlightening and entertaining book called
Freakanomics – Link Here. (stunningly important book – read it!)
I reached Chapter
Four “Where have all the Criminals Gone?” It was, to put it
biblically, like having the scales fall from my eyes.
Freakanomics is an
American book. The USA peaked out their crime rate in 1989 – not
too different from the UK in 1995. So I wondered if the reason for
the collapse in the American crime rate was mirrored in the UK.
But before we look at that lets explore the reasons for the USA crime rate fall.
Why did the USA
crime rate peak in 1989? Why has it been falling ever since? Put
simply, the USA introduced abortion on demand around 1970.
Who has an abortion?
Back before 1970 in the USA it was only the relatively wealthy and
well connected.
After 1970 abortion became increasingly available to all income groups. So if you were a poor vulnerable girl who accidentally
became pregnant, instead of becoming a failing young mother, you now
had abortion as an answer to an otherwise desperate situation.
The birth rate to
low income single teenage girls collapsed. Young unsophisticated
girls, often barely more than children and usually the product of a
casual teenage liaison themselves were allowed to grow up without the
burden of an unwanted and (often) uncared-for child to look after.
Before the
introduction of freely available abortion the offspring of these
often feral teenagers grew up to become feral teenagers themselves.
The cycle continued.
As they grew up
these accidental children had no role model (beyond the local
drug-dealer). As the males matured many turned to criminality
(90% of crime is attributable to young males). Or if female – they
got pregnant and simply re-fuelled the vicious social lock-in that
had brought them into the world in the first place.
Criminality is
mostly a problem among feral young males aged 15 to 27. After the age
of 27 there is a marked and prolonged decrease in male criminality.
Of course other groups do commit crimes but young males from broken
or non-existent homes form the bulk of modern day criminals.
With each passing
year after 1970 the abortions continued. The reservoir of future
criminals decreased. Then in 1989 about twenty years after the
introduction of freely available abortion in the USA, the reservoir
began to empty. The physical number of criminals in their early
twenties or late teens began to decrease.
Less uncared-for
feral children make for less young criminals. And less young
criminals make for less crime.
Stunningly simple.
Even though it feels somewhat discomforting.
So does this
scenario pan out for the UK too? It looks like it does.
When abortion
was introduced into the UK in 1969 uptake was relatively slow. In 1970 the
number of abortions was 86,000 while in 1975 (twenty years before the
peak in crime rate) it had risen to 140,000. From then on it levelled
off at around 190,000. Today it is just over 200,000 per year.
So around 20 years
after the provision of easily accessible abortion in the UK, the
crime rate started to fall. Just as it had in the USA.
This is not to say
that this is the only reason for falling crime rates but it is
without doubt a (very) major factor.
But nobody (and I
base this on many conversations with female friends) likes abortion as a method of birth control.
Ironically the best
way to avoid abortions is not by abstention (didn’t work in the
80’s and won’t work now) but by free and readily available
contraception. Especially to those most likely to fall into the
teenage pregnancy trap and are sadly the least likely to get pro-active support and help.
Maybe by
pro-actively promoting contraception more we can reduce the abortion
rate and still keep the benefits of a lower crime rate.
Remember the problem
here is with contraception for young people who are probably already
having difficulty growing up and need to be guided by more capable
individuals. For example we are not dealing with the typical
emancipated and pro-active young woman who can sort her self out.
Criminality is
driven by a surprisingly small sector of society. (more in a later
post). That is why the
advent of freely available abortion has had such a large impact upon
it.
But abortion can be traumatic. A better regime of contraceptive
support especially for the vulnerable can cut this trauma and still
reduce unwanted pregnancies.
To me promoting
contraception seems a much better idea than simply relying on
abortion. While maintaining a falling crime rate is a big societal bonus.
I think few would
disagree.
