Eu Referendum Demographics: A Different Take.

I've been interested to find out how many people from each age group actually voted in the Eu referendum.

From my findings below I reckon the votes cast by the 18 - 24 age group amounted to barely 6% of the total vote cast. So for every young voter who turned out there were four pensioners who turned out to vote.

We've all seen the standard Eu voting demographic which looks like this:

This is from a quite detailed set of statistics surrounding the referendum by Lord Ashcroft.
The full Lord Ashcroft data is (HERE) and the BBC version is  (HERE).

Both though miss one very important (or vital) statistic. What was the turnout demographic?

Look as you might, there is very little about how many people by each age group voted rather than just which way they cast their vote.

There is this from The Financial Times (HERE) that shows a trend that the older a towns population, the higher the Brexit vote. But while it is qualitatively interesting it gives no real indication of how many people from each age band voted.

But there was one source based on a poll and reported by Sky data on Twitter. Polls, as you know are far from definitive but I think it would be fair to say that it could be regarded as reliable to +/- 5%.

Here is the tweet.

(The caveat that was here relating to the Sky Data has been removed as it proved to be a red herring) 

From this we can see that while 73% 18-24 year olds  voted to remain, only 36% of that age band in total actually turned up to vote. The turn out for this age band was dismal.

In order to translate this into an approximate number of voters, we need to know the population density within that age group.

Here is a demographic table for the UK from Wikipedia (HERE)

We get (approximately)

18 - 24   5,900,000
25 - 34   8,400,000
35 - 44   8,800,000
45 - 54   8,700,000
55 - 64   7,400,000
65+       10,500,000

Clearly, not only is the 18-25 age group the least likely to vote but they are also (by far) the smallest group of voters.

If you now use the the Sky data you can get a rough idea of how many people voted in total from each age band

18 - 24 (5,900,000 * 0.36) 2,125,000
25 - 34 (8,400,000 * 0.58) 4,875,000
35 - 44 (8,800,000 * 0.72) 6,335,000
45 - 54 (8,700,000 * 0.75) 6,525,000
55 - 64 (7,400,000 * 0.81) 5,995,000
65+    (10,500,000 * 0.83) 8,715,000

This above table totals to 34,570,000 whereas the actual total who voted was 33,577,342 which is less than 3% different (2.95%)

I would suggest that within a 5% tolerance the figures above are fairly good.

So from this we can see that for every young vote there were four pensioner votes. The young vote (18- 24) was only 6% of the total vote cast.

If the young had voted with the same dedication as anyone above the age of 35 then the vote would have been with remain.

UK Foreign Aid, the Eu and German Coffee Barons

Of the £13 Billion annual UK foreign aid budget around £600 million is given to Kenya.

Kenya has long ties with the UK and is arguably one of the most progressive countries within Africa. Kenya is striving for self reliance and is a dynamic rising economy.

But the question has to be asked: Why does Kenya need this aid?

Why isn't Kenya self reliant already?

To be self reliant Kenya (or any country) needs to build trade. They need to sell and export Goods and Services. From this trade comes a surplus and from that surplus Kenya could provide the education, health care and education services that are currently propped up by UK foreign aid.

One of Kenya's main industries is growing coffee beans and selling the unprocessed beans to the Eu (Germany in particular)

Compared to selling processed coffee, the profitability of selling coffee beans as a raw material is pitiful. If you spend say £5.00 on a bag of ground processed coffee, then  about 5 pence (1%) will go to the Kenyan coffee grower.

So why don't the Kenyans process their own coffee and sell on the refined product? 

That's where we come to the German Coffee Industry and Eu protectionism.

Germany (and the rest of the Eu) cannot grow coffee beans. So the Eu is happy to have a zero tariff on coffee beans when imported as a raw material. 

But coffee is processed in Germany and the German Coffee Barons don't like competition. Neither does the Eu. 

If the Kenyans wanted to sell processed coffee to the Eu then they get hit by a 7.5% tariff. On the tight margins in a competitive industry that 7.5% is a killer.

AS a result Kenya doesn't invest in processing its own coffee and makes far less than it should out of its coffee industry.

All so German coffee grinders and blenders can operate free from competition.

Meanwhile UK Foreign Aid is used to prop up vital Kenyan services. 

In a perverse way the final destination of a large part of the £600 million UK foreign aid given to Kenya isn't Kenya at all. It ends up lining the pockets of protected and cosseted German Coffee Barons who profit from this unfair competition.

Without punitive and debilitating Eu tariff boundaries the Kenyans could develop their natural industries as they should be developed. Then they could pay for their own services and not be dependent on the largess of the UK government.

Poor Africans striving for a better future deserve better than this.

And so do we.

Vote Leave on Thursday.

Vote Leave for yourself, and vote Leave for the poor African farmers abused by the Eu.

Hat tip to Anna Racoon who looks at further Eu abuse and exploitation of African Farmers Here

A Love Letter to Europe

I know some of our European friends are quite shocked to find out that we will be probably voting to leave the Eu. So I thought I'd write them an explanation why I'll vote Leave. 

My Dear European Friends,

So, how has it come to this?

In 1973 I voted to join the Common Market. I was (and still am) a passionate supporter of a European Free trade area. I love Europe and I love my European friends and work colleagues.

So it is with sadness that I have to tell you that on the 23rd July I will be voting to leave the Eu. This is not a snap decision. I have agonized over this decision for a long time.

I feel I owe you an explanation, so here's why.

The most precious gift possessed by the peoples of Europe is Democracy. It is almost trite to remind you that millions died from all around the world to preserve it and promote it. Now, at last, all European countries are (to a greater or lesser extent) democratic.

Perhaps though, we should not forget that many of the countries in the Eu were, until quite recently, dictatorships. Over half of the countries in the Eu had totalitarian governments within the last 70 years. Maybe that explains the lack of rigour in your demands for democracy within the Eu itself.

That to me, is a very big problem.

Above all else, for me, the lack of democratic accountablity with the Eu is the reason to leave.

Tony Benn was hardly my favorite politician, but he beautifully summarised it as follows:

He said:

"...one can ask five questions:" 

1. "What power do you have? "
2. "Where did you get it?" 
3. "In whose interests do you exercise it?"
4. "To whom are you accountable?"
5. "And, how can we get rid of you?" 

He then pointed out that

"Anyone who cannot answer the last of those questions does not live in a democratic system."  

The Eu legislature is un-elected and unaccountable. Only the un-elected commission can propose legislation.

True - there is a fig-leaf of democracy in an elected Eu Parliament. But this is an emasculated talking shop. It cannot instigate legislation, which has to be the prime reason for any parliament. The Eu Parliaments powers are for all intents and purposes, little more than the UK House of Lords.

This is wrong.

But worse than this, is the way the Eu bends democracy to breaking point in order to get its way.

Several times treaties have been legitimately and democratically rejected by national referenda. On each occasion the Eu has instigated a fear campaign and forced another referendum within the country concerned to reverse the decision. (See earlier Post here)

Even worse they can (and have) deliberately overthrown democratic decisions. The worst and most flagrant example of this involved the defunct Eu Constitution and the subsequent affront to democracy called the Treaty of Lisbon.

I'll just remind you how this shocking anti-democratic coup took place.

The original Eu Constitution was vetoed by two referenda in France and Holland. Further referenda vetoes were certain.

Consequently the Eu Constitution (per-se) was dropped.

A victory for democracy?

Hardly.

By sleight of hand the Commission resurrected the constitution.

They replaced it with the (deliberately) unintelligible Treaty of Lisbon. It is unintelligible because it is in essence a set of line by line amendments to existing treaties. They are amended to reflect the content of the vetoed constitution.

As an amendment to existing treaties, the Treaty of Lisbon did not require countries to exercise a referendum. Only Ireland held a referendum. They vetoed the Treaty of  Lisbon. Undeterred, the Eu Oligarchy forced a re-run. After a scare campaign the result was reversed.

Democracy was defeated. The ruling Eu Oligarchy ignored the true wishes of the peoples of the Eu. They imposed their Eu Constitution.

Such actions demonstrate a total contempt for democratic rule.

So I simply cannot stand by while an already remote, elitist Oligarchy turns into a dictatorship. My country, my children and my grandchildren deserve better than that.

There is sadly far, far more.

The appalling treatment of African nations,
Debilitating uncontrolled immigration and emigration.
The advanced planning for an Eu "army"
The shocking underhand and undemocratic actions taken in the Ukraine.

Then there is the stinking cesspit of Eu wide cronyism and corruption.

For 40 years all political partys in the UK have tried to deal with these issues. But the unelected self serving Eu elite studiously stone-wall reform and ignore requests to change.

We can do no more.

So there it is my friends. We have to say good-bye.

Maybe the shock of the UK leaving the Eu will get things get sorted out. If the corrupt Eu Oligarchy is brought to heel maybe we can again have a closer relationship. But not with things as they are.

I do hope we can remain friends.

Love

Billothewisp