Why Vote for a Small Political Party?

There is a General Election in July (2024) in the UK, so I thought I'd put forward a few ideas why you should ditch the main parties and seriously consider voting for a smaller party. In my humble opinion the best of the bunch is (by far) the Social Democratic Party (SDP). I urge you to give them your vote if you get the chance. They won't win. But even so, here's why you should give them your vote.

General Election 2024 - So What's On Offer

It looks like the current broken and dysfunctional UK government run by the Conservative Party will be replaced by an equally broken and dysfunctional (though marginally different) government run by the Labour Party. 

Maybe there’s a chance there’ll be a (equally dysfunctional) Lib/Lab coalition or whatever.

There seems little chance that the Conservatives will win another term. Frankly, after their record, they really do not deserve consideration. They deserve to lose, and badly.

But what about the Labour Party? 

I am sure I don’t have to relate the horror stories about the extremist, anti-Semitic and generally poisonous nature of a large section of the Labour party. 

A party that clearly puts the working class (aka the people who usually elect it) at the very back of the queue. They are (and will be) placed behind every minority, fad, cult and other extremist who demands the attention of the inner Labour Party Clique. The decent people of this country will be lucky to get the table scraps.

We are in for a (very) hard five years. Whatever the outcome of the election. 

But still, why vote for anyone else? Especially a small party. You’ll surely be voting for a loser. 

So why vote at all?

In a democracy you have the privilege of voting. But that privilege entails you making a choice.

But what if there is NO choice? Or maybe a choice like between drinking Hemlock or swallowing Arsenic? 

What do you do? 

You look for an alternative to the poison on offer. If there isn’t one,  you do nothing.

So Boycott Maybe?

I was brought up to treasure democracy. But one option is to do nothing. Not vote. Boycott it. 

Though I don't consider this the best option, it is not as nugatory as some believe. Staying at home and not voting pushes down the turnout. The winner’s legitimacy is compromised. If only ever so slightly. So if there is no-one worth voting for  then boycotting the vote is at least a away of showing your disgust. 

A Better Option

But a better way of showing your disgust is to vote for one of the other candidates. 

They may have no chance of winning but at the end of the day your vote will show. It will show your disillusionment with the Lib/Lab/Con/Grn hegemony. 

But won’t a small Party vote be ignored?

Well, if it's for Lord Bucket-Head - maybe. 

But if it's for a political party that has already put the Labour Party's nose seriously out of joint in Leeds like the SDP has  (well done Councillors Dixon, Pogson-Golden  and Chesterfield) it will focus minds wonderfully. Just like in these examples below.

Here’s a few examples.

1. George Galloway.

Hardly a person I support or agree with. But a very, very clever political operator. Look at the influence and control he has over the Labour Party with his pro-Islamic stance. See how in every seat contended by Galloway's party the Labour Party buckle and shift towards Galloway's agenda. The Labour Party (to it’s disgrace) has been falling over itself to “accommodate” people with views concurrent with with those of Galloway. It that is not political influence, what is?

2. Reform.

Reform is unlikely to get any MPs in July. But the Conservative party is bending over backwards to try and placate and accommodate those liable to leave it for Reform. A bit late in the day maybe. But after the election, does anyone believe that the Conservative will not try and win back their supporters lost to Reform? How will they do that? By adopting Reform policies.

3.(The original) UKIP.

Do you think that the Lib/Lab/Con/Grn hegemony would have ever approved an EU referendum (by 91% of MP’s by the way) unless the then UKIP hadn’t been breathing down their collective necks? Remember UKIP simply didn’t exist 25 years before the referendum. For most of that time it was regarded as a figure of fun by the Lib/Lab/Con/Grn hegemony. But they weren't laughing in 2016.

Influence

So by voting for small apparently insignificant parties you can at least influence the eventual policy outcome. All parties start as pressure groups. Then they build. Influence turns to power.

Building Visibility and Support

As disillusionment grows (and it will) so will support for decent parties like the SDP. A hundred votes this year gets you noticed. People see your policies and attitude. Word spreads. Next election it’s a thousand, then ten thousand.

That’s how the Labour Party came to power back in the 20th century. That's before it got poisoned by the elitist snobs who run it today.

That’s how the SDP will do it. Bit by bit. Election by election. Council seat by council seat. Then MP by MP.

We have to start somewhere. Turning our country round is going to be monumentally difficult. Things will almost certainly get worse before they get better. 

So lets all start the fight back by putting an X in the box marked SDP on the 4th July.

Why Vote in a Safe Seat?

Let’s say you are in a constituency where the sitting MP has a humongous majority. Maybe a majority that is far, far bigger than all the votes for all of the other candidates combined. Like (say) Tottenham.

You have to ask yourself: What is the point in voting?

If you vote for the sitting MP your extra vote when added to the mountain they already have will make no difference. If you vote for any of the other candidates, you stand no chance whatsoever of changing the MP.

Even in a marginal seat a General Election constituency contest has only once been decided by a majority of one and that was back in 1910. As for a draw that has also only ever happened once, back in 1886.

The net result is is that on a personal level the physical and financial gain from participating in a vote, especially in a safe seat, is nil.

On this we have to hang the question: On an individual basis, what IS the point of voting?

The inescapable answer is that on a purely individualistic and selfish  basis there is no point whatsoever.

But voting is not about the individual. Voting is above all else an altruistic act. It is selfless. It has no tangible reward. It results in a group decision where the wisdom of crowds prevails.

(which leads me into a book recommendation – a must read – "The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki)

Even so, walking half a mile on a cold and rainy day to vote in an election where the outcome in your constituency is a forgone conclusion does test that altruism somewhat.

There is though a singular advantage in voting in a safe seat constituency. Especially if you are a little disillusioned with either the sitting MP or the main ( but distant) contenders.

You can safely experiment.

You can vote for someone else. You can vote for somebody or some party that takes your fancy. They don’t even have to have a fully formed policy base.

If it tickled you fancy you could vote for the Monster Raving Loony Party without consequence.

But rather than the Monster Raving Loony Party (who I am sure have a set of policies almost as good as any of the main partys anyway), why not use your vote to support a smaller party?

Why not vote for a  party that is possibly struggling to get some notice?

Or maybe you would like to lend your support to a party that will achieve considerable electoral support across the country, but will, thanks to the inequities of out voting system gain no seats.

In either of these cases your vote does have some tangible effect.

For a small party like (say) the SDP it can provide vital visibility. With enough votes, even though they stand no hope of winning the seat, they’ll gain vital exposure. It may well stop them being quite so ignored by the media. Maybe they’ll start cropping up on the MSM Radar more often. This could give them vital publicity to fight future more winnable elections either locally or nationally.

For a larger party like (say) the Brexit Party a vote for them in an unwinnable seat is a vote of support. A vote that will be tallied up nationally. It will show with the millions of others across the country the inequities and plain damn unfairness of our electoral system.

So, as long as you regard altruism as a virtuous ideal, a vote in a safe seat is not a wasted vote.

You can, if you like, add it to the mountain for the current MP. Or vote for one of the traditional partys.

Or you can be adventurous.

Even a vote for the Monster Raving Loony Party is better than no vote at all!

The SDP: 2019 Thirsk and Malton

Time for another amateur analysis of one of the seats being contested by the SDP in the forthcoming General Election. Here is a look at a Conservative safe seat that is being contested by a brave SDP candidate by the name of Michael Taylor.

Thirsk & Malton is a Tory stronghold in North Yorkshire. In the last election they took 60% of the vote. In the EU referendum the constituency voted 56% to leave the EU. This constituency will not change hands in December 2019.

Interestingly Mike Taylor (SDP) is the only candidate that has supported Brexit from the outset. The sitting MP (Kevin Hollinrake) was (in 2016) a supporter of Remain. Today it looks like Kevin Hollinrake is really a somewhat reluctant Brexiteer.

I would suggest Kevin Hollinrake supports Johnson out of party loyalty rather than due to any “road to Damascus” conversion. In fact he voiced opposition to Johnsons “do or die” ideal of leaving the EU on October 31st.

I would suggest that the sitting MP is in all intents and purposes still a Remainer at heart. I would suspect that although he may tow the party line after the election, he will potentially be a thorn in the side of those negotiating the future Trading relationship with the EU.

There is no UKIP or Brexit Party Candidate. The rump 2017 UKIP vote (1500 voters) has to be looking for a home. They did not go to the Conservatives or Labour in 2017 so where else is there for them to go in 2019 other than to a true Brexit supporting party like the SDP?

In 2015 the UKIP vote was almost as big as Labour's. In 2015 UKIP took just under 8000 votes. It looks like between 2015 and 2017 the UKIP vote shed 2000 voters to Labour and 4500 to the Conservatives.

So there should be a considerable number of discontented Leave voting Labour supporters who have given up on Corbyn’s debacle of a Brexit policy. They may well be looking for a new home, especially for one with strong traditional Labour roots.

It could well be that these leave voters just won’t vote Tory ever. Especially for one who was a Remainer. So this may well be fertile territory.

As for the disgruntled leavers in that mountain of Conservative voters, there is the opportunity to tweak the sitting MPs tail by voting for the SDP. There is no chance of letting in Labour (or anyone else) by the back door. A protest vote to support a real Brexiteer may well just make their day.

So lets say the whole of the ex-UKIP vote and perhaps another 2000 voters apiece from both the Conservative and Labour partys are volatile. They will consider voting for a true Brexiteer in the election. That is 12,000 volatile voters.

Resources are of course limited. But with a bit of luck and fortuitous canvassing then maybe 1000 can be pulled into the SDP camp which would be brilliant. But a vote in the few hundreds would still be a publicity victory.

So here are my crap ideas on what to promote to entice voters to vote SDP.

They are probably rubbish but maybe one or two will hit the spot.

1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. Whatever you vote and whether you like it or not, the MP is secure.
2. Your vote still matters. It will not change the MP but it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory. It will make the Tory MP just that little bit less complacent.
3. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
4. Attack Labour on their hideous record on bigotry and antisemitism. The MP cannot be changed by voting Labour. So wouldn’t it be worthwhile registering your disapproval of this antisemitic ugliness by voting SDP and depriving Labour of your vote?
5. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit and work against it.
6. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Remainer Tory? Or pro democracy?
7. We (quite rightly) have laws to protect 16 year olds from sexual and financial predators. Do you think giving votes to 16 year olds and opening them up to political predators is a good idea? The Labour party supports votes for 16 year olds! Will you vote for that? Or vote SDP so showing your disapproval of hard-line "woke" Labour policy
8. You do know the sitting Tory MP supported remain in 2016 don’t you? He won’t be replaced in this election but you can keep him inline by voting for the only candidate that supported Brexit from the outset. The SDP candidate.
9. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored.

The SDP: 2019 Tottenham

You just have to admire people who are willing to put themselves through hell to stand  in no-hope seats. Of those seats Tottenham is potentially the most difficult. 

The SDP candidate in this case is Andrew Bence. So whatever party you support Andrew Bence deserves our most wholehearted respect.

If you wanted to define a safe seat, then Tottenham has to be a primary contender. The sitting MP (David Lammy) took 80% of the votes in 2017 on a 68% turnout. Or to put it another way David Lammy got well over 4 times the votes than of all the other candidates combined.

In the 2016 EU referendum 76% of the Tottenham vote in the referendum was for Remain.

So Tottenham is both a Labour and a Remainer Citadel.

Nobody is going to be elected here except for David Lammy. The only candidate in the election other than David Lammy who is even likely to save their deposit is the Conservative candidate. The Conservatives in 2017 came a distant second with 11% of the vote.

This is by definition going to be a difficult seat for anyone other than Labour to get votes in.

Even so, the Leave vote in the 2016 EU referendum was about 18,000. Due to the virtual non-existence of UKIP around 13,000 of those 18,000 voters must have voted for Lammy in the 2017 General Election.

The Brexit Party is also fielding a candidate. So unfortunately any of those 13000 Labour leave voters disgruntled enough to look for another party is going to have three to choose from.

Perhaps it would be best for the SDP candidate to emphasise the Social Democratic nature of the SDP and it’s Labour origins. Then distance themselves from both the Conservatives and the Brexit Party. Present the SDP as the socially responsible party for leavers to vote for.

Lammy is a senior politician and as such is perhaps (as most senior politicians are) somewhat of an occasional visitor to his patch. If there are any local issues that have been left to fester, then cultivating a protest vote about these ignored issues might get some mileage. Local social issues, especially those that might be also ignored by the Conservative candidate due to party policy would be well worth exploring.

I have looked at how other minor partys have fared in the past in this seat. I think a result in the low hundreds will be a good result. Anything over 400 will be a milestone. A 1000 would be groundbreaking.

So what would be the best way of promoting the SDP in this seat? Here’s seven suggestions.

They may range from worthwhile to totally irrelevant in this seat. I don’t know. They are just suggestions.

1. Tottenham is an armour plated safe Labour seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than Labour. So if they feel disgruntled with current Labour policy or the MP they can safely register a protest vote.
2. Your SDP vote will not change the MP but it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory. It will make the current MP just that little bit less complacent.
3. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote will not change the MP! But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
4. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party? As you won’t change the MP wouldn’t it be worthwhile registering your disapproval of this ugliness by voting SDP? It might help to make them sit up and take notice.
5. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit.
6. The Torys can never hope to achieve anything here. The Brexit party is unlikely to survive another two years. Wouldn’t it be worthwhile building up a viable alternative voice to Labour in Tottenham? Even if its just to keep the Labour MP on his toes and reduce the endemic complacency that comes with a safe seat.
7. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored.
8. Local issues. Bring up local issues. Especially those that have been allowed to run out of control without much/any input from the sitting MP.

The SDP: 2019 Havant

The SDP are standing a candidate in the Havant Constituency in Hampshire in the 2019 General Election.

Here's my take on what they might achieve, where the potential SDP voters will come from and how many of them there are. Of course, this is just my opinion but I think it adds up.

In my humble opinion this is one of the best prospects for a decent vote share for the SDP in all of the 20 seats being contested by them.

Havant is an impregnable Tory seat and always has been. In the last election the sitting Tory MP (Alan Mak) garnered almost 60% of the vote. His majority alone was bigger than the vote share achieved by the Labour Party. This seat will not change hands.

There is no UKIP and (more importantly) no Brexit party candidate. The SDP candidate is in fact the sole Brexiteer. Alan Mak campaigned in 2016 to remain. This should be a strong lever to prize off disgruntled Brexiteers from the mountainous Tory vote.

Alan Maks majority amounts to a full 34% of the votes cast. So all voters should realise that Alan Mak will not be replaced whatever they vote. Voters can safely express their displeasure at his remainerism.

Voters can diminish Mak's vote share by voting for the only candidate that supported Brexit from the start - the SDP candidate. They can do this without fear of letting in the Labour Party by the back door.

The SDP candidate in this election is Alan Black.

Here is the candidate list and 2017 general Election result

In 2015 UKIP gained a considerable vote share with 9000 votes. When they collapsed in 2017 about about 4000 of their votes went to the Tories and about 3000 went to Labour. There remained a rump of about 2000 UKIP votes in 2017.

Interestingly there was an independent candidate in 2017. She gained nearly a 1000 votes. It appears her campaign centred around over-development in the area which could be another good lever to gain votes. (more research required)

Explaining to voters that this seat will not change hands is crucial.

There is a rump of 2000 UKIP votes with nowhere to go other than the SDP. 

There is the 3000 that migrated to the Labour party that must also be desperately looking for somewhere to go. 

The 4000 UKIP votes that went to the Tories will also feel queasy if they are enlightened to the fact that Alan Mak actually campaigned for Remain in 2016 even though he had previously described himself as a Euro-Sceptic. 

For these Tory voters, finding a real Brexiteer (SDP) candidate while being shown that Alan Maks majority is so huge that there is no possibility of inadvertantly letting in a Labour or LibDem will be an eye-opener.

Besides the ex-ukippers, the Labour vote is up for squeezing anyway. They have in essence abandoned their leave supporting Labour voters. Add to that the nastiness about anti-semitism and I reckon theres about 2-3000 Labour votes other than the 3000 ex-ukippers up for grabs.

Add in the 1000 votes that went to the lady independent and there is a lot to play for here.

I reckon that in total there is possibly up to 12000 volatile votes that are maybe looking for a new home. Most of those will be abandoned or mislead leave voters who would like to punish either the Tories or Labour.

The Tory voters will all will fear a Labour government. Reassuring them that voting SDP cannot let in the Labour candidate by the back door is paramount.

The reverse is true for the Labour voters.

Telling them the truth that whatever they vote they will not change the MP will mean they can register their disapproval with Corbyn and his (less than) merry men.

So what would be the best way of promoting the SDP in this seat? Here’s my ten arguments.

They may be rubbish but they may just get you to generate better ones!

1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. So by voting for party other than the Tories you will not be damaging Brexit. Whatever you vote and whether you like it or not, the MP is secure.
2. Your vote matters. It will not change the MP but it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory. It will make the Tory MP just that little bit less complacent.
3. Does the MP pay enough attention to local issues (like over-development?) register your disapproval of local over-development by voting SDP, a party that puts local people first and greedy developers at the back.
4. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
5. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party? As you won’t change the MP wouldn’t it be worthwhile registering your disapproval of this ugliness by voting SDP and depriving Labour of your vote?
6. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit. Vote SDP!
7. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Tory? Or pro democracy?
8. We (quite rightly) have laws to protect 16 year olds from sexual and financial predators. Do you think giving votes to 16 year olds and opening them up to political predators is a good idea? The Labour party supports votes for 16 year olds! Will you vote for that? Or vote SDP so showing your disapproval of hard-line Labour policy
9. You do know the sitting Tory MP campaigned to remain in 2016 don’t you? He won’t be replaced in this election but you can keep him inline by voting for the only candidate that supported Brexit from the outset. The SDP candidate.
10. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored.

The SDP: 2019 Epping Forest

In a strange nerdish way these vote analysis posts for SDP contested seats are good fun.

But be warned: My interpretation of what votes can be stolen from where by the small SDP party may be a load of baloney.

Trusting my analysis would be a bit like trusting another passenger to land a 747 because he read one of the manuals a couple of years ago.

But it at least keeps me out of the pub for a few hours.

Anyway here's the next one - for Epping Forest.

To call this a safe Tory seat would be the understatement of the century. 62% of the electorate voted for them in 2017.

Just remember 2017 was a badly run and poorly fought election by the Torys! They still got 62%.

Labour are a distant second and the Libdems garner a couple of thousand votes.

No UKIP candidate and more importantly no Brexit Party candidate are standing in this election. So the SDP candidate is the only other Brexit supporting candidate other than the sitting MP.

The SDP candidate is Jon Newham.

Here’s the candidate list and the last election result.

There are a couple of interesting things with this constituency.

First off if you look at the 2015 General Election result (below) you will find that the UKIP vote was considerable. It stood at 9000 votes. They made a large dent in both the Labour and Tory vote and pushed Labour into third place. Even so the Tory majority in 2015 was still much the same as in 2017.

In 2017 it looks like the Labour party robbed the LibDems and the Greens. They also possibly took around a third of the UKIP vote. I’d suggest that this third (or about 3000 voters) will be desperately looking for a new home. With all the shenanegins with anti-semitism and general Corbynista nastiness maybe there would be more.

It is worth noting that the Labour candidate is a keen supporter (actually a driver of Labour policy in this area) for votes at 16, which in my humble opinion is very unpopular with most people over the age of 30. I would think that this would be a strong lever in prying away older voters from the Labour Party.

The mountain of the Tory vote may get tweaked for those ex-UKIP voters. They may be keen leavers but are possibly reluctant Tories. They don't have Brexit Party to migrate to. But they will still need persuasion that moving their vote to the SDP they will not change the MP or damage Brexit. Possibly 4000 volatile voters here?

So in total about (maybe) 7000 votes up for grabs by the SDP. That is of course, IF those 7000 can be identified and persuaded. I reckon a 1000 votes at the end of the day would be a fantastic result.

So what would be the best way of promoting the SDP in this seat? Here’s my eight arguments.

They may be rubbish but they may just get you to generate better ones!

(And YES! they DO change slightly post to post. Honest!)

1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. So by voting for the SDP you will not be damaging Brexit. Whatever you vote and whether you like it or not, the MP is secure. 
2. Your vote matters. It will not change the MP but it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory. It will make the Tory MP just that little bit less complacent.
3. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
4. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party? As you won’t change the MP wouldn’t it be worthwhile registering your disapproval of this ugliness by voting SDP and depriving Labour of your vote?
5. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit. Vote SDP!
6. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Tory? Or pro democracy?
7. We (quite rightly) have laws to protect 16 year olds from sexual and financial predators. Do you think giving votes to 16 year olds and opening them up to political predators is a good idea? The Labour party candidate does! He thinks giving votes to 16 year olds is a great idea! Will you vote for that? Or vote SDP so showing your dissaproval?
8. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored.
9. The SDP candidate supports Brexit. None of the other candidates other than the MP do. So if you want to register support for Brexit you have a straight choice Tory or SDP. Neither choice will change the final election result. But a vote for SDP will help focus the Tories on Brexit.

The SDP: 2019 Cambridge

For reasons unknown even to me, I decided to have a look at the 20 seats being contested by the SDP in this coming General Election. (Maybe I should get out more).

This is the second post in the series.

Caveat Emptor:

My experience in analysing voting trends can be summed up in two words. "Bugger all".

So what you see is what you get. It may right. It may be wrong. Or anywhere in the middle. You decide. But I hope it is at least somewhat entertaining.


Cambridge is Remainer Heaven. At least 80% of the last general election vote went to partys that now support Remain.

The only potential fly in the ointment for them is that there will (possibly) be a reluctance from a small proportion of the Labour voters to vote for a hard core Remain MP who is also in favour of scrapping Trident.

The SDP candidate is Jane Robins. 

This will be a very hard seat to do well in. So good luck to Jane.

The immediate pain here is that the Brexit Party is standing as well as the SDP. They will potentially hoover up most discontented ex-UKIP  voters who didn't even have a candidate in 2017.

This is an ultra strong remain seat. The turnout rose by almost 10% between 2015 and 2017 probably due to students voting. Almost all of that 10% appears to have gone to Labour. It is an unequal fight between Labour and LibDems who between them hold 80% of the turnout.

One light on the horizon is that the 2015 UKIP candidate was the redoubtable Patrick O’Flynn who may have some local street cred and would be well worth parading about on the streets. (;-)

In the 2016 EU Referendum 26% voted to leave. Yet only 16% voted Tory in 2017. Which suggests Labour and the Lib Dems are hiding about 5000 leave voters between them.

Nationally, thirty per cent of LibDem voters voted Leave in 2016. As we are dealing with voters not party apparachtiks maybe there’s some room there with maybe up to (say) 2000 potential voters?

However this may be wishful thinking. Leaver LibDems may have already migrated to the Labour Party in 2017.

Maybe targeting Labour would be the most fruitful. Labour leavers must be feeling very uncomfortable about how the party has done a volte face on Brexit and may consider abandoning them. But going to the Tories or Farage's Brexit Party would be a step too far.

Also maybe its worth trying  to woo UKIP voters though I suspect most of those will either stay Tory or go to Brexit Party.

I think it unlikely that many of the 9000 Conservative voters would migrate to the SDP. Though you never know. If John Haywood is not particularly well liked then that may be an avenue for persuasion.

Here’s my pennys worth of campaign statements which is probably useless. But it may trigger you to think up better ones..

Basically it comes down to targeting the 30% leavers (irrespective of party) in the seat and to exploit Labour vulnerabilities.

1. Cambridge is a armour plated safe Remain seat. There is no chance for anyone other than Labour. Even the LibDems are almost 13,000 votes behind Labour. So if your are a leaver, by voting for a party other than the Tories you will not be betraying Brexit. But choose your party well. You have a choice between the Torys, a one policy Brexit party or the SDP.
2. Your vote matters. It will not change the MP from being a Remainer but it will potentially set the trend for the future – and allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory.
3. The SDP has been around for 40 years. Do you think the Brexit Party will be around after next year?
4. The SDP respects democracy. If you voted to remain we respect your decision and we will not vilify it. But democracy is paramount.
5. Why not show support for an honest but small party? You vote will not change the MP whatever you vote! But it may have a big effect on the way partys view the issues you are concerned with.
6. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party?
7. Do you want you vote to support a party that said it will ignore the biggest referendum in our history like the LibDems?
8. The MP in this constituency will be a Remain supporter. You won’t change that. But you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite. Vote SDP.
9. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? So when they total up the votes at the end, which pile will your be in? Pro Corbyn? Or pro democracy?
10. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it would be ignored.
11. Do you support scrapping Trident? The Labour and LibDem candidates do! Do you think they are serious about defence? Are you?

Potentially (maybe) 5000 votes up for grabs? But very, very difficult due to Brexit Party and very large Remain vote base. A thousand votes on the day will be ultra impressive.

Jane Robins of the SDP has a mountain to climb. 

But she’s a good Gal. 

Lets hope she makes an impact.

The SDP: 2019 Basildon & Billericay

As there are people in the SDP who have the guts to stand in the coming General Election (and in no-hope seats at that) I thought the least I could do would be to have a quick review of some of these seats. Just to see what they are up against.

I don't have any magic insight or skill at this. Just a few hours to spare poking about on Google. This may be useful or it may be a waste of time. But whatever, here it is!

First on the list of seats being contested by the SDP is Basildon & Billericay. It is a stupendously safe Conservative seat. 

The SDP candidate is Simon Breedon. 

While he has the typical safe seat mountain to climb, the seat does have some interesting dynamics mainly brought about by the fact that unless you vote Conservative (and to be fair most do!) the only other choice for a Brexit honouring candidate is Simon.

Here is the candidate list and the General Election 2017 result.

So where’s the meat and potatoes in this lot?

UKIP (and the Brexit Party) are gone. The Greens are new and will probably only steal votes off the Lib Dems and the maybe a few from the Labour party. The Lib Dem vote probably reflects a group of hard core Remainers who are unlikely to swap to SDP.

But where did the UKIP vote go? It appears about two thirds went to the Torys and one third to Labour. The election turnout in 2017 was 2% up on 2015. In 2015 UKIP came third with 20% of the vote. It appears most of that from 2015 has gone to the Tories. But not all.

How soft is the Labour vote? It has actually grown over the last 3 elections and it would appear that the increased turnout in 2017 gave it a boost.

BUT that was before all the back-sliding on Brexit or the worries about anti-semitism and Corbynism.

Certainly the proportion of UKIP votes that went to Labour in 2017 (maybe 3000) will be looking for a home. Maybe another 2000 Labour supporters would be readily open to persuasion.

As for the Conservative vote, maybe some of the UKIP vote that migrated here will be available. A lot of these people will not be convinced Tories and never were. Say 1000.

So I reckon there are up to 3-4000 voters that are potentially up for grabs by the SDP. Realistically a result in the high hundreds will be a victory.

So what would be the best way of promoting the SDP in this seat? Here’s my seven arguments.

They may be rubbish but they may just get folk to generate better ones!

1. It is a armour plated safe Tory seat. Emphasise to the electorate that there is no chance for another party to win in this seat other than the Tories. So by voting for partys other than the Tories you will not be betraying Brexit or risk changing the MP for that matter.
2. Your vote still matters. It will not change the MP. But it will potentially set the trend for the future. It allows you to register support for leaving the EU without voting Tory.
3. Big up the democracy aspect. Why not show support for an honest but small party? Your vote whatever it is will not change the MP! Neither will it imperil Brexit. But it may have a big effect on the way others view the issues you are concerned with.
4. Do you want to use your vote to support a party now strongly associated with anti-Semitism like the Labour Party?
5. You won’t change the MP whatever you vote but you can register your displeasure with the Metropolitan elite. Especially the anti-democrats that want to cancel Brexit and you can do this without voting Tory. Vote SDP!
6. Do you think Corbyn is “safe”? When they total up the votes at the end, which pile will yours be in? Pro Corbyn? Pro Tory? Or pro democracy?
7. Do you think UK politics is broken? It cannot be fixed overnight by voting SDP. But it is a start. And it uses you vote for good effect when otherwise it will be ignored and lost.

Good luck to Simon Breedon, SDP candidate for the 2019 General Election: Basildon & Billericay

BillotheWisp’s SDP Attack Dog

Give him ten years and he will have your leg off.

You may be surprised to hear that the small Social Democratic Party (SDP) are standing candidates in no less than 20 seats this General Election.

In fact I was amazed and pleasantly so.

The SDP is a thoroughly decent party that deserves support. So I thought I’d spend a some time just looking at the potential for these 20 candidates.

So here are my thoughts. They may be right. They may be wrong. But I hope you find them interesting.

Lets deal with what will be presented as “the down side” first

Will these 20 SDP candidates potentially split the Leave vote? Could they allow the LibDems (or any other bunch of juveniles) in through the back door?

The answer to that is a resounding NO!

All of these seats are safe seats for the present incumbent. To anyone other than the existing MP they are no-hopers (that includes the SDP).

In other words (short of a miracle) there will be no change to the MP in any of these 20 seats.

You may well ask: What is the point in fighting in a constituency when you know you are going to lose?

For the larger partys that is a moot point. To them concentrating on no-hope safe seats would be crazy. In safe seats (when held by another party), the big party’s often just field a paper candidate. A token. Someone who in all likelihood will be here today and gone tomorrow.

But for a small party like the SDP seeking to expand its base, this is all about getting noticed and building a base. No SDP candidate will be gone tomorrow. Win or lose.

The most important aspect to this is that these seats are safe seats with majorities for the current MP in the many thousands.. So any individual voting for any of the partys standing, in essence knows their vote will not change the outcome.

Let’s say you are a traditional Labour supporter in a safe Conservative seat.

You won’t vote Tory. Especially as they will win the seat anyway.

But maybe you are committed to Leaving the EU. What can you do?

Do you vote for the spotty ex-student neo-Marxist paper candidate who is an ardent Remainer? Someone who abhors your EU preference and probably views you and your family with disdain?

Are you really going to register one more vote of support for Jeremy Corbyn? A man who in all likelihood is somebody you despise?

Look at it the other way. Say you are in a safe Labour seat.

Again whatever you vote will make no difference to who is the MP. But should you add support to the winner when you know they have been (in all likelihood) architects of the opposition to Brexit?

Are you going to vote Conservative when Conservative policies (other than Brexit) feel suspect?

Then what about the Brexit party?

To me it looks like the Brexit Party is imploding. It has little apparent policy other than that implied by its name. To me it looks like they are dying. A vote for them in these circumstances would truly be a wasted vote.

As for the Lib Dems – well, surprise, surpise!

Thirty per cent of Liberal Democrats voted to leave in 2016.

Where are they going to go?

Will they pile up votes for the local Corbynista? Vote Tory? Vote for the “new” LibDems that discarded democracy like a used tissue?

The alternative is a party that has actually sorted out policy and has a route plan. The SDP.

They won’t win. But none of the others will either. But a vote for the SDP will be another brick in building a truly fair, non elitist working class movement. A vote that would, if used otherwise, count for nothing.

This will be a hard month for those standing for the SDP. In reality getting a thousand votes will be impressive. Saving their deposit (5% of the turnout – say 2500 votes) will be a victory. Any more than that will be amazing.

I don’t think that any SDP MP’s will be elected. Though it would be nice. I suspect most candidates however hard they work, will just get a few hundred votes.

But with a bit of prompting the decent people of this country, whose vote will otherwise count for little, may be persuaded to start the ball rolling and register a vote for change.

Maybe not change today. But change for their children and the future.

What I intend to do in the next series of posts is promote a number of the constituencies in which the SDP are standing. If for no other reason than to give them a tiny bit more publicity and Google link love.

These will be my unprompted thoughts (no one else’s). I hope they help. If they don’t then discard them.

Brexit Party & SDP. A Crazy Idea. But….

OK. Laugh this out of court if you like. It is (as it says on the tin) only a crazy idea. I’d love your comments (however derogatory) either here or on twitter.

This concerns the next General Election, which we all hope will not be long in coming.

It also concerns the Social Democratic Party (to whose members it is mainly aimed). So if you are not interested in the SDP or (say) the Brexit Party or even Brexit then stop reading now.

This post particularly concerns the vulnerability of the Brexit vote to splintering and how (this is the crazy bit) how to mobilise and maximise the Leave vote in staunchly Labour areas to ensure Brexit.

It also concerns (take a deep breath at this point – this is even crazier) also how we may yet get some SDP MPs.

So, here we go.

The Conservatives even though they are well ahead in the opinion polls, will struggle in many traditional Labour seats. However dismal Labours policies are, many will still vote for them rather than Conservative. The historic loyalties of honest Northern voters will be played like a fiddle by Momentum and their pals.

While the Brexit party may gain traction in these seats it may not be enough. The end result could well be that (thanks to our crap electoral system – FPTP) in many traditional Labour seats the Labour candidate sneaks in with 30-35% of the vote.

We could easily end up with another minority Leave government or even worse a minority/majority Remain government. Even though the electoral vote share for Leave may swamp the Remain vote.

This has happened before in UK General Elections. See these old posts of mine for dates and what happened. (Overview Here) (Example 1 - 1929 ) (Example 2 -1951) (Example 3 - 1974)

One of the obvious tactics that will be used by Labour to attack the Brexit Party will be that (as viewed by many on the left) they are closet Tories. Meanwhile many Tory voters in those same seats will see the Brexit Party as a one trick pony with few policies or direction.

The Brexit Party will get squeezed by both these ideas. Even though in fairness, it has gone some way to ensure it has candidates that are other than small Tories, and it also has policies beyond Brexit.

But voter perception is King. You can bet your bottom dollar the Brexit Party will get vilified by both sides.

So how does the SDP fit into this?

To answer that we need to look at the structure of the Labour Party. (Yes I told you this was crazy. Now it is going to get bizarre)

Or rather lets look at the structure of two separate partys. The Labour Party, and the Cooperative Party.

Most Labour MPs are just that. Labour MPs.

But 38 (who also take the Labour whip) are not. They represent two parties. they are elected on a joint ticket for the Labour & Cooperative Party

Although these days there is little difference between the two different parties, these 38 MPs in the House of Commons are actually from an alliance (dating back to 1927) between the Labour Party and the Cooperative Party. (See Here). 

Today they form the the fourth largest grouping in the House of Commons. They do NOT stand under the ticket of the Labour Party but under a joint ticket. On the ballot paper voters put their X in the box marked “The Labour & Cooperative Party”.

I expect you are way ahead of me by now. But if not, let me expand.

To ensure success in Labour Heartland seats, the Brexit Party needs to de-tory-fy itself. It has done this to the best of its ability by selecting candidates that are in the main clearly not Torys. But the stigma sticks. 

If it could form a public alliance with a Party with a strong working class history that Labour voters could easily identify with, it would greatly aid it electoral chances.

I would suspect too that many of the chosen Brexit Party candidates, while fully committed to delivering Brexit, are still somewhat unhappy about being on exactly the same ticket as Nigel Farage and would like some distance.

So for the Brexit Party it would make a lot of sense to stand candidates as “Brexit and SDP Party”. Just as some Labour candidates stand as “Labour & Cooperative Party”

I’d put money on it that Labour voters would much rather put an X in a box labelled Brexit & SDP Party than one marked Brexit Party. (let alone one marked Conservative)

It would also make a lot of sense for the SDP to adopt some of the finer centre-left candidates in the Brexit party as dual party members, and maybe negotiate to replace one or two of the weaker ones with real quality SDP candidates like Patrick O’Flynn.

Both partys would gain.

As Robert E. Heinlein once said

“Never appeal to a man's 'better nature.' He may not have one. Invoking his self-interest gives you more leverage.”

It is in the self interest of the Brexit Party to have an alliance. It is also in the self interest of the SDP to have an alliance.

It is in neither partys interest to squabble or ignore each other.

(Right. I’ll restart taking the medication now. Thank you)

Parliament, MPs and a Betrayal of Democracy.

When Boris Johnson attempted for a second time to trigger a General Election on the 10^th September he won the vote in parliament with a majority of 247. 

Of the votes cast 85% were for a General Election.

So why did the bill to trigger a General Election fail? 

It failed because according the Fixed Term Parliament Act he needed the backing of 66% of MPs. 

A 66%+ majority was inadequate. In fact only 52% of MPs voted.

Look at this and weep.

Thats right. Nearly half of all MPs elected to Parliament to vote on our behalf could not be bothered (or were too scared) to even register a vote. Yet this was one of the most important bills to come before Parliament this century. For these cowards no vote was recorded.

If in a General Election only 52% of the electorate turned up to vote then it would (quite rightly) be regarded as a crisis for democracy.

I am unsure as to the true motivation (or lack thereof) of those who failed to vote but I can make a few guesses. 

But the first and foremost aspect of all this is the type of example it sets to an electorate that is already pretty damn disillusioned with politics in the UK.

Dare I suggest that if you are elected to Parliament it is your DUTY to vote. 

No ifs buts or wherefores or Machiavellian subterfuges, you must vote.

There may be (very) rare occasions when you may feel inadequately qualified (or whatever) but the clue is in the word – rare. 

There was absolutely no excuse for any MP not to vote (either for or against) this bill.

Of course there are reasons why some MPs would oppose Johnsons bill. 

But instead of actually publicly displaying their preference they allowed a clearly flawed Fixed Term Parliament Act to do their dirty work for them.

Look at this.

Notice the block of 111 Labour MPs (for who no vote is recorded) happen to represent Leave majority constituencies. 

I don’t know whether they are stupid enough to think the little subterfuge of not voting will allow them to pretend they were not responsible for vetoing a General Election.

I do wonder whether they are hoping to say on the doorstep that they didn’t actually vote down Johnsons bill. 

Or maybe they just wanted to avoid any immediate unwanted publicity that their vote might attract in their home town.

We elect politicians for a purpose. 

They are there to represent our views and are handsomely paid to do so. In order to represent our views the very least they have to do is actually vote! 

Then we can see them publicly upholding (or for that matter – betraying) our mandate.

This shocking dereliction of duty for petty party political ends is simply obscene and a betrayal of the electorate.

If you are an MP at least have the guts to vote. You were not elected to sit on your hands.

A General Election? Or a Lottery?

The General Election tomorrow promises to be the closest and probably unfairest election in recent UK history.

Tomorrow we may well see the SNP with about 5% of the UK national vote return 40 - 50 MPs while UKIP with 15% will return 2 or 3.

The Greens will get a national vote share of about 5% will return just one MP. Meanwhile the Lib-Dems with their 5-8% will return anything up to 30.

To emphasise how bizarre, awful and anti-democratic this all is, be aware that the single Green MP may well only get elected after fluking it with support of only 31% of the Brighton electorate (like she did in the last election).

But without that fluke the Greens with their 5% would have no representation at all.

Meanwhile Labour expect to maintain their tribal vote in the North while the Conservatives will expect to maintain their tribal vote in the South

Most of this gross unfairness is down to the rubbish voting system we use. The First Past the Post (FPTP) voting system is both prone to fraud and can easily return an unfair result.

The FPTP voting system strongly favours tribal voting. That's why Labour and the Conservative love it.

That's why five years ago both Labour and Conservative unleashed a wave of fear-mongering to get the referendum on proportional representation rejected. That coupled with an incompetent campaign run by the Lib-Dems led us to voting against reform. (Seriously, who put the Lib-Dems in charge?)

Because we now have many parties with significant (4% or more) support, tomorrow will be more like a lottery than a fair and democratic election. All thanks to FPTP.

So tomorrow, why not just vote for who you believe in?

True, you can try and be clever and second guess a secret ballot by voting tactically.

But really the chances are you'll either guess it wrong or it won't make any difference anyway. You will also disguise your true opinions.

Stay true to your principles.

Of course this travesty of an election is not a one off. First Past the Post has failed us many, many times in the past.

But there is one thing worse than voting in a FPTP election. That is NOT voting at all.

Below are the three biggest FPTP howlers. No prizes for spotting the unfairness.

The Devils Mark and the UKIP Witch.

As the General Election approaches we watch a comedic and vacuous contest between the main parties as they attempt to variously bribe, frighten or deceive the electorate into electing them.

The major parties need bogeymen. So whether it's the SNP, Plaid Cymru, UKIP or the Greens, you can bet the spin doctors are working overtime vilifying those who threaten their traditional voting base.

Generally the pompous self serving propaganda is more high farce than high politics.

But even so, a special and vile black propaganda is reserved for “racist” UKIP. While the other minor parties are disliked, UKIP is despised - and feared. Probably because it offers the biggest immediate threat to the status quo.

Racist. What a word!

A vile word speaking of Eugenics, pseudo science and demonic bigotry.

A word that today, is chanted, screamed and spat out. A vile word currently aimed at generally decent and politically virginal folk. Folk who generally wouldn't know how to be racist if they tried.

It is the modern day equivalent of the 17^th century Witch-Finder judgement of Witch! Witch! Witch!

A word of hate screamed with the aim of subjugating opposition and silencing dissent.

Most of the supporters of UKIP are blue collar working people. Folk who feel impelled to support UKIP because they feel disenfranchised by the ruling metropolitan elites. In some ways UKIP support is a mirror of the way working class Scots have rallied behind the SNP and abandoned a complacent, tired and irrelevant Scottish Labour Party.

But Racist!

The word racist, by such gross misrepresentation, loses its meaning. It is now a word that has become the property of anti-democratic bigots all the way from the upholstered boardrooms at the BBC down through to the vile spiteful losers that inhabit the sewer like recesses of the extreme left.

But the word racist screamed out by a hate filled zealot and aimed at a decent, kind and moral 80 year old pensioner is of course, still sadly undeniable. Just as terrified young girls in the 17^th century found that being tortured and then declared a witch was undeniable as well.

In the 17^th century a woman accused of witchcraft would be “Pricked”. Pricking involved drawing blood with a needle. If a place was found that either didn't bleed or had maybe become numb from the torment then the woman bore the “Devils Mark” and was clearly a witch.

It was a pathetically stupid way of determining guilt for a non crime.

Today's equivalent of pricking is the continual hostile interrogation. The perpetual attempts to put words into people's mouths. The sneering innuendo and trickery perpetrated on simple folk as they seek to explain their position. A media inquisition (led by the BBC) intent on building an ugly image, no matter how false.

Truly, like other political parties, UKIP policies need to be subjected to tight scrutiny and clear analysis but conducting a hate filled pogrom against their right to free-speech is simple mindless witch hunting.

There is no place for it in modern society.

Please Note:

Billothewisp is not a member of UKIP or any other political party. He knows nobody within UKIP. He has never had any direct contact with anyone within UKIP. He is unlikely to vote UKIP in the coming General Election. 

He does however believe in free speech. 

If such a travesty was perpetrated against the Lib-Dems or the Greens or even the Labour or Conservative parties, he would write the same.