Fracking: Will it Ruin my Locality?

There is an enormous amount of controversy surrounding fracking and/or conventional oil and gas extraction in the UK. Groups of "Frackavists" paint lurid images of corrupted aquifers, poisoned rivers and vast environmental damage.

Along with that come the other scare stories. Rumours abound of potentially collapsing house prices and ugly scenery-scarring derricks. These scare stories do have an effect and many people develop a negative opinion about gas/oil extraction, especially in their locality.

But are these stories true?

We could look to the USA that has been massively exploiting shale gas for close on to twenty years. But we do not need to. We can look to our own (long term) experiences with on-shore oil/gas exploration and exploitation.

Most people do not actually realise that the UK has a large on-shore oil/gas field and that it has been exploited for nigh on forty years. This oil/gas field is known as Wytch Farm. Wytch Farm is by far the biggest on-shore oil/gas field within Northern Europe. Its production hub sits within Poole Harbour in Dorset. Wytch farm has over 100 oil/gas wells. Currently the site is owned by Perenco Ltd. Prior to Perenco's take over of the site a few years ago, the site was run and managed by BP.

Looking down from Purbeck  across to Poole Harbour. Below is the largest on-shore oil/gas field in Northern Europe with over 100 wells. Can you see any?

Wytch Farm sits within one of the most environmentally sensitive areas in the World, laying on the edge of the World Heritage Jurassic Coast. The main operational centre is on a small island in the heart of Poole Harbour and sits about one mile (and in direct line of sight) from the area known as Sandbanks. Sandbanks is the second most expensive area in the world for residential property. If you wanted to buy one of the properties nearest Wytch Farm you would be lucky to get any change out of £10 million.

Wytch Farm is a large industrial complex yet it is so unobtrusive and environmentally benign that most local people simply do not know it exists.

But what about fracking?

Fracking is usually associated with horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing of the well hole. 

Wytch Farm was one of the world's pioneers in the development of horizontal drilling. Some of the many wells that radiate out from the operational hub of Furzey island within Poole Harbour stretch out for up to 10 km. Most of the production wells running out from Wytch Farm have been “optimised”  using a technique known as water flooding. This technique is different from fracking as this is a conventional gas/oil field. Even so, water is still injected into the rock. But it is used to "flush out" the oil and gas rather than increase the pathways for the oil/gas to flow down. In both cases this activity takes many thousands of meters under the surface and has makes no difference to the surface topology of the site.

So Wytch Farm is an extremely good guide for how properly managed new oil/gas exploration/exploitation (including fracking) affects the local area.

Particularly for Wytch Farm we can state:

• Wytch Farm has not damaged an area of outstanding natural beauty.
• Wytch Farm has had minimal impact on the environment.
• Wytch farm has provided many good quality jobs for local people.
• Wytch Farm has invested heavily in the locality and in environmental protection.
• Wytch farm has reduced UK dependence on foreign oil and gas.
• Wytch Farm clearly has had no affect on property prices.

Wytch Farm, as far as local residents are concerned is virtually invisible. Occasionally when a new well is being drilled, a derrick pops up for a short while but is soon gone. If Wytch Farm were to badly affect the local area does anyone seriously believe that the likes of Harry Redknap (whose house is arguably the closest to Wytch farm) would pay millions to live there?

So how would new oil/gas exploration/exploitation in the UK affect Global Warming and Air Pollution.

The first and most obvious fact is that whether or not any new oil/gas fields are developed in the UK the number of fossil fuelled cars/trucks on our roads will be totally unaffected. As will their emissions. All that would happen is that the shortfall from UK production would be made up by importing oil/gas from international suppliers.

Crucially, this imported oil/gas would have to be shipped here.

One little known fact is that the fifteen largest ships in the world (mostly oil tankers) actually pump out more Sulphur Dioxide and particulate matter than all the cars on All the roads in ALL the world.

For the UK, all noxious emissions from cars are matched by a single supertanker.

By simply producing oil locally and so reducing the use of large oil tankers there would be a reduction in Sulphur Dioxide pollution and other noxious large ship emissions.

Keeping it in the ground is a wonderful slogan, but really, unless and until there is a valid replacement for oil based fossil fuel used for transport, it is better and more environmentally responsible to use local supplies rather than remote and uncontrolled foreign supplies.

So, if there is the prospect of an oil/gas development close to you, ask those who are telling you the lurid tales of doom and desolation what they think about Wytch Farm.

Ask them why should any new development be any different from Wytch Farm.

Of course you will probably find that they have never even heard of Wytch Farm in Dorset let alone know it is the biggest oil/gas field in Northern Europe.

Just in case you think I am indulging in the Frackavist diseases of selective quotation and open deceit – here's a few links that may further enlighten you.

Wytch Farm:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wytch_Farm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-23961621

http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/projects/wytch-farm-oil-field/

http://www.perenco-uk.com/

Large Ship Pollution:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/apr/09/shipping-pollution

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/31/noaa-pollution-florida-freighters-tankers-cruise-ships

Fukushima – the Hidden Epidemic

I hope to show in this post how the events at Fukushima and the subsequent actions of the Japanese government effectively signed the death warrant for thousands of Japanese people and consigned many more to ill health and premature death. I will also show that sadly, this is a continuing and on-going problem with no end in sight.

A great deal of lurid speculation has surrounded the melt downs at Fukushima. But surprisingly, (it is now two years since the Tsunami) there has been no indication of any actual loss of life from radiation from any reputable body.

But significant loss of life there has been. Without a doubt.

The press and media have distracted people from this silent epidemic by their lurid (often fictional, usually ignorant)  sensationalist news reports. The result is that most people are now focussing on the wrong issue.

To get a handle on this epidemic we  need to consider events that took place all across Japan immediately after the Tsunami. Particularly we need to see what happened to Japanese power generation.

After the melt downs,  the Japanese government ordered the shutdown of all nuclear plant in Japan. Today, two years on, only two reactors are in operation. As Japan relied on nuclear power for close on to 30% of its electricity, these shut downs left a very large hole in Japan's generation capability. A hole that had to be filled by other generating capacity.

Here is a a set of tables up to end 2011 of  Japanese fossil energy usage for electrical generation

From this you can see Natural Gas generation rose by 58 TWh, coal by 57 TWh, and Oil by 9 TWh through 2011.  It would seem reasonable to assume the split remained much the same through 2012, if not somewhat higher in total

Now we come to some highly regarded published and peer reviewed papers

The first paper (published in Environmental Science and Technology paper available HERE) is by Hansen and Kheracha (if you don't know who Dr Jim Hansen is then you must have been asleep for the last ten years)

They reference a second paper (published in The Lancet medical journal - paper available HERE) by Markandya and Wilkinson. Both papers revolve around this table showing the number of deaths caused by electrical generation. While this table refers to Europe, I would argue is equally valid for Japan.

The extra Coal based electrical generation, (displacing Nuclear) kills through air pollution, 24 people per TWh of generation. Over the two year period that comes to (24 x 57 x 2) = 2736 deaths, 25,000 serious illnesses and untold minor ailments.

Extra Natural Gas based electrical generation has caused (3 x 58 x 2) = 348 extra deaths, 3400 serious illnesses and  again thousands of minor illnesses

Oil based electrical generation statistically kills 19.2 people per TWh. So the additional oil based generation has caused the deaths of ( 19 x 9 x 2) = 342 extra deaths, 2900 serious illnesses and another legion of minor illnesses.

Assuming Nuclear would have originally handled all this (i.e. 57 + 58 + 9 = 124 TWh),  then the statistical deaths from nuclear would have amounted to (0.052 x 124 x 2) = 12 deaths and 54 serious illnesses.

So there we have our hidden plague. Death brought about NOT BY nuclear power, but brought about by NOT HAVING nuclear power. An epidemic killing almost 3500 people in two years ( that is nearly 33 a week) and leaving many times that number ill and incapacitated.

Of course, this slaughter can be stopped within a few days. But that requires political courage and an honesty beyond that seen so far in Japanese politics.

Basically somebody has to stand up, explain the statistical risks to the Japanese people from nuclear power. Then detail the continuing carnage from the fossil fuel replacement.

Then they need to turn the nuclear plant back on.

(my figures are highly conservative. The most likely death toll from this silent plague is considerably higher)